167
FXUS62 KCHS 112302
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
602 PM EST WED FEB 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO MARINE DISCUSSION FOR ENDING HAZARDS THIS
AFTERNOON. MINOR CHANGES TO AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
- 2) A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FROM THE NORTH LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING BRINGING SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
ALOFT, H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD MID-LVL
TROUGH WILL RIPPLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON, HELPING PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS LOCALLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE NORTH LATE DAY INTO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE LIGHT RETURNS
WITH PRECIP LIKELY STRUGGLING TO REACH THE SFC DUE TO
SUBSTANTIALLY AIR DEPICTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE SFC TO
700MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE ARRIVING
FRONT SHOULD EVENTUALLY MOISTEN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN,
SUPPORTING MEASURABLE RAINFALL IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND FAR INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY- MID
AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LATE DAY INTO EVENING HOURS
AS THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH WITH TIME. ALTHOUGH
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AT
TIMES TODAY, WARM AIR ADVECTION INTO THE REGION WILL STILL
SUPPORT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 70S DURING PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING (WARMEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO SOUTHERN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA). WARMING COULD LEAD TO MARGINAL LEVELS
OF INSTABILITY (250-500 J/KG SBCAPE), AND WHEN COMBINED WITH
FORCING/INCREASING MOISTURE COULD EVEN PRODUCE A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH INTO
SOUTHERN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF HIGHER RAINFALL RATES PRIOR TO ACTIVITY
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND/OR SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD MOSTLY BE IN THE
0.10-0.20" RANGE, BUT LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE A THUNDERSTORM
COULD SEE AMOUNTS IN THE 0.25-0.50" RANGE.
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT, A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL YIELD ELEVATED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH
SETS THE STAGE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
AFTERNOON HOURS WHILE WARMER TEMPS PROMOTE LOW-LVL MIXING.
FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 20- 25 MPH RANGE CAN BE EXPECTED FOR MOST
AREAS, WITH STRONGER GUSTS POSSIBLE DURING SHOWERS AND/OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A MORE IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
TURNING THE ATTENTION TOWARDS THIS WEEKEND, A SUBSTANTIAL
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST AS A
SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COASTLINE.
QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT DEPENDS
ON HOW QUICKLY PHASING OCCURS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS
REFLECTED IN THE 00Z.LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS WHERE CLUSTER 1
CONTAINS ROUGHLY 50% OF THE ENS MEMBERS AND ABOUT 10% OF THE
GEFS MEMBERS, EMPHASIZING THE DIVERSITY OF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
AND THE LACK OF A DOMINANT SCENARIO. WHILE, CLUSTER 2 CONTAINS
ALMOST THE COMPLETE OPPOSITE SCENARIO WITH ROUGHLY 50% GEFS
MEMBERS AND ABOUT 10% OF THE ENS MEMBERS. CLUSTER 2 ANALYSIS
WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE WITH THE 06Z.GFS AS IT DISPLACES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EXHIBITS LESS
PHASING RELATIVE TO THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. THIS SOLUTION WOULD
YIELD A MUCH DRIER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS THIS IS
JUST ONE SOLUTION, NOT MUCH WEIGHT HAS BEEN PLACED ON THIS
SCENARIO QUITE YET.
NOT SURPRISINGLY, THE 13Z.NBM LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE CLUSTER 1
ANALYSIS AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO REFLECT THIS.
AS THE REGION BECOMES WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT ON SUNDAY, EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AND
PERSIST INTO MONDAY. REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE CONTINUES
TO BE A 80-90% CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 0.5" AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL > 1" WITHIN A 24-HR PERIOD. THERE IS EVEN A
POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
PRESENT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS. AS STATED BEFORE, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
12/00Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: A RISK FOR A BRIEF SHOWERS WILL LINGER UNTIL
ABOUT 04Z AT KCHS AND KJZI AND 06Z AT KSAV AS A COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. IMPACTS, IF ANY, WILL BE BRIEF.
OTHERWISE, VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 13/00Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR PREVAILS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK, HOWEVER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND
AS A SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE REGION.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS LOCAL WATERS FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS ENHANCED WITH LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS AND MODEST
MIXING SUPPORTIVE OF 15-20 KT WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS RANGE BETWEEN 2-5 FT, LARGEST ACROSS OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WINDS VEERING TO THE WEST AND
WEAKENING INTO EARLY EVENING WHILE SEAS SUBSIDE AND REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER,
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SURGE WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION
POST FROPA LATE NIGHT, AND COULD BRIEFLY RESULT IN GUSTS NEAR
25 KT ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND
DAYBREAK THURSDAY MORNING. GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND MARGINAL
COMPLEXITY OF THE EVENT THURSDAY MORNING, HAVE OPTED TO HOLD
OFF ON A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WITH
THE LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL DIAL
BACK ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. SOME EAST-NORTHEASTLERY SWELL WILL
LINGER IN THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL WITH SEAS
RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. ATTENTION WILL SWITCH TOWARDS A
PRONOUNCED SYSTEM HEADING TOWARDS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND
AND SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE BLUSTERY ON
SUNDAY. ALONG WITH THESE WINDS, A GOOD AMOUNT OF SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL ENERGY SHOULD ALSO BUILD INTO THE LOCAL
WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH SEAS 4 TO 7 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
6 TO 8 FT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THEREFORE, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK VERY LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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