157
FXUS62 KCHS 121724
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 PM EST THU FEB 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEWPOINT VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON WERE LOWERED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. THE AVIATION
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE THIS WEEKEND,
RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SUBSTANTIAL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AS A SURFACE LOW TRIES TO DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COASTLINE. QUITE A BIT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY PHASING OCCURS WITH THIS SHORTWAVE AND THE
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY. THIS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN
THE 00Z.LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS WHERE CLUSTER 1 CONTAINS ROUGHLY 70%
OF THE GEPS MEMBERS AND ABOUT 50% OF THE GEFS MEMBERS, EMPHASIZING
THE SPLIT OF SOLUTIONS AND THE LACK OF A DOMINANT SCENARIO. THE
CLUSTER 1 ANALYSIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF THE 06Z.ECMWF AS IT HAS A
SLOWER ONSET OF PRECIPITATION. WHILE, CLUSTER 2 CONTAINS ROUGHLY 40%
ENS MEMBERS AND ABOUT 20% OF THE GEFS MEMBERS. THE CLUSTER 2
ANALYSIS WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF A DRIER SOLUTION AS IT DISPLACES THE
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE FARTHER SOUTH AND EXHIBITS LESS PHASING.
THE 13Z.NBM LEANS MORE TOWARDS THE CLUSTER 1 ANALYSIS AND THE
FORECAST HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO REFLECT THIS. AS THE REGION BECOMES
WARM-SECTORED AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY, EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN EARLY SUNDAY AND PERSIST INTO MONDAY.
REGARDING RAINFALL AMOUNTS, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A 80-90% CHANCE OF
RAINFALL > 0.5" AND A 60-70% CHANCE OF RAINFALL > 1" WITHIN A 24-HR
PERIOD. WPC SEEMS TO AGREE WITH THIS SENTIMENT, AS THE REGION HAS
BEEN PLACED IN A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THERE IS EVEN
A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LITTLE BIT OF INSTABILITY APPEARS TO BE
PRESENT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
HIGHER ACCUMULATIONS IN SOME AREAS. AS STATED BEFORE, A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THIS SYSTEM AND TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE
POSITIONED TO THE NW OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY, YIELDING IN
GENERALLY NE WINDS. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT
EASTWARD, POSITIONED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WIND SHIFT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS TO THE SE BY SATURDAY
EVENING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
SUNDAY, CREATING A PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN
THE APPROACHING LOW AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH. WINDS GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6+ FT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, POSSIBLY NECESSITATING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR THE WATERS. THE LOW IS THEN FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY, POSSIBLY YIELDING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER WIND GUSTS.
THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LOW AND ITS
TRACK, SO THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS PERIOD IS LOW.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/DENNIS
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