893
FXUS62 KCHS 131733
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1233 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THIS AFTERNOON TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE LATER HALF OF THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AN IMPACTFUL SYSTEM ARRIVES DURING THE LATER HALF OF
THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN RENEWED PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND PERHAPS
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER FOR
THE NEXT WEEK. A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S., WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE REFLECTION TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK.
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA SHOULD BECOME
POSITIONED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY, BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AS THE LOW PULLS OFF THE COAST MONDAY
MORNING. GIVEN THE FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE, NOTED BY
PWATS NEAR OR EVEN EXCEEDING 1.3 INCHES (WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR), SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO AVERAGE IN THE 0.50-1 INCH RANGE. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
TOTALS TO EXCEED 1" IN 24 HOURS ENDING 7 AM MONDAY IS ONLY 10-20%
PER ENSEMBLE MEANS, HOWEVER IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
ESPECIALLY WHERE CONVECTIVE POCKETS OCCUR. THESE VALUES SHOULD NOT
POSE MUCH OF A FLOODING THREAT GIVEN ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS WITH
WIDESPREAD D2 (SEVERE DROUGHT) AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
EVEN IN A D3 (EXTREME DROUGHT). SEVERE THREAT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL
GIVEN INSTABILITY OF A COUPLE HUNDRED JOULES AT BEST AND POOR LAPSE
RATES. PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE HIGHEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE INTO SUNDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE MARINE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY,
CREATING A PINCHED GRADIENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING LOW AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT
ACROSS THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS, LIKELY NECESSITATING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. THE LOW IS THEN
FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH MONDAY, HOWEVER THE NBM PROBABILITY OF
GUSTS >25 KNOTS ARE ONLY AROUND 20% ON MONDAY.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CPM/ETM
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