992
FXUS62 KCHS 141825
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE DEW POINT VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO MATCH
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HAS MARGINALLY INCREASED. THE AVIATION SECTION
HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAFS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GA AND SC
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
0-6 KM WIND WILL BECOME SW AND STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH APPROXIMATELY 1.4" BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH STRATOCU ALSO
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER,
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA (UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHERN SC). MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
NO MORE THAN 100-200 J/KG CAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF MORE
SUNSHINE IS ABLE BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS, CAPE COULD GET CLOSER
TO 500 J/KG ACROSS INLAND GA AND SC.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC, THOUGH MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC/GA EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN
COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS, THEN CLEAR OUT BY MID- MORNING MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50-0.75" ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AND FAR INLAND SC. SOME OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) DEPICT A RELATIVELY DISCRETE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY, THOUGH OTHERS SHOW A MORE
BROKEN OR DECAYING BAND OF CONVECTION BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS
FAR EAST. AS CONVECTION GETS CLOSER TO THE SC COAST, IT IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A PRONOUNCED STABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING. WE ARE STILL NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK GIVEN THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 350-500 M2/S2 AND
50-60 KT OF BULK SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN POCKETS OF GREATER BUOYANCY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH, NOW ENCOMPASSING JASPER, HAMPTON,
ALLENDALE, AND THE WESTERN PART OF COLLETON COUNTY IN ADDITION
TO SOUTHEAST GA.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE NEAR THE END OF THE
18Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES TODAY, THEN
GRADUALLY FADING TONIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A PINCHED GRADIENT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 25 KTS
ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS (OUTSIDE THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR) FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A BAND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME STORM SEGMENTS WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
DUE TO GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS
THE LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL
YIELD SCA CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS
AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH MID-WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.
CPM/JRL
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