283
FXUS62 KCHS 150021
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE. A MINOR UPDATE TO THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN MADE TO
REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT,
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERHAPS A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN ALABAMA
AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY, THEN OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH GA AND SC
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY.
0-6 KM WIND WILL BECOME SW AND STRENGTHEN TO 40-50 KT LATE
TONIGHT, BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH APPROXIMATELY 1.4" BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH STRATOCU ALSO
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. ONLY POCKETS OF SUNSHINE
ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY, LIMITING DIABATIC HEATING. HOWEVER,
STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA (UPPER 60S IN
SOUTHERN SC). MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT RELATIVELY WARM AIR ALOFT
WHICH WILL LIMIT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS
NO MORE THAN 100-200 J/KG CAPE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IF MORE
SUNSHINE IS ABLE BREAK THROUGH THE CLOUDS, CAPE COULD GET CLOSER
TO 500 J/KG ACROSS INLAND GA AND SC.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE THROUGH IN THE MORNING AS A WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH FROM THE ATLANTIC, THOUGH MOST AREAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY UNTIL EARLY AFTERNOON. A FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD MOVE INTO CENTRAL SC/GA EARLY
IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN THROUGH THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. RAIN
COULD LINGER UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK SUNDAY ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS, THEN CLEAR OUT BY MID- MORNING MONDAY. GUIDANCE IS STILL
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50-0.75" ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD OCCUR SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AND FAR INLAND SC. SOME OF THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS
(CAMS) DEPICT A RELATIVELY DISCRETE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST MID AFTERNOON SUNDAY, THOUGH OTHERS SHOW A MORE
BROKEN OR DECAYING BAND OF CONVECTION BY THE TIME IT GETS THIS
FAR EAST. AS CONVECTION GETS CLOSER TO THE SC COAST, IT IS
EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER A PRONOUNCED STABLE MARINE LAYER WHICH
SHOULD CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING. WE ARE STILL NOT PARTICULARLY
IMPRESSED WITH THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK GIVEN THE MEAGER
INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, 0-3 KM HELICITY OF 350-500 M2/S2 AND
50-60 KT OF BULK SHEAR COULD SUPPORT A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
OR ISOLATED TORNADOES IN POCKETS OF GREATER BUOYANCY. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) EXPANDED THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH, NOW ENCOMPASSING JASPER, HAMPTON,
ALLENDALE, AND THE WESTERN PART OF COLLETON COUNTY IN ADDITION
TO SOUTHEAST GA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 14Z SUNDAY. HOWEVER, LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP AROUND NOON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
AREA, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE 20-
24Z SUNDAY TIMEFRAME. THE RISK FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WELL, PERHAPS EMBEDDED IN A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ARRIVING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
AT THIS TIME, PROB30 MVFR GROUPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED BETWEEN 20-24Z
SUNDAY AT CHS/JZI FOR MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND AT SAV FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, GUSTING TO
THE 20-25 KT RANGE AT TIMES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING, THEN
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN A PINCHED GRADIENT BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO AROUND
25 KTS ACROSS ALL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS (OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR) FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME STORM
SEGMENTS WILL REQUIRE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS.
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE AS THE
LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY. GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL YIELD SCA
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE GA WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH
MID-WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 9 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.
CPM/DPB/JRL
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