865
FXUS62 KCHS 151122
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE. ADDED KEY MESSAGE 2 TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
- 2) A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A POTENT CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE
TX/LA, TRACKING EAST. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LOW
WILL TRAVEL EAST GENERALLY OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH, THEN CONTINUING EAST PUSHING OFFSHORE AS AN AMPLIFIED
SHORTWAVE OVER THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER BETWEEN 3-6Z MONDAY.
HREF 0Z INDICATES THAT A BAND OF 1.4" PW WILL REMAIN AHEAD OF THE H5
LOW AS IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. GFS1DEG
INDICATES THAT A WIDE FIELD OF H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE WILL REACH SE
GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY JUST AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON THEN PUSHING
OFFSHORE BY 6Z MONDAY. THE COMBINATION OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. RAINFALL LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE MID-DAY HOURS
SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED NEAR THE WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER, THE STRONGEST AND MOST FOCUSED FORCING WILL LIKELY
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THAT IS TIMED TO REACH THE
FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST BY 21Z. NAM12 INDICATES A SOLID BAND OF
925-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL PUSH ACROSS SE GA AND PORTIONS OF THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A GENERAL 0.5" TO 0.75" OF RAINFALL
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A SQUALL LINE WAS LOCATED OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, PUSHING EAST. THIS LINES HAS BEEN
HIGHLIGHTED WITH A TORNADO WATCH, ALONG WITH SEVERAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNINGS. THE SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY
REMAIN INTACT AS HREF INDICATES THAT 0-1 KM SRH SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN
200-300 M2/S2 ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE LINE. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN BELOW 500 J/KG, WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES EXPECTED ACROSS SE
GA. RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR INDICATES THAT THE NORTHERN SECTION OF
THE SQUALL LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS SE GA AND SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
SC LOWCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON, 2-6 PM. THESE STORMS MAY BRING A RISK
OF SEVERE WIND GUSTS, IMPACTING TREES AND POWER LINES. SPC DAY1 HAS
EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK 1 TO 2 COUNTIES NORTH OF THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER, WITH A MARGINAL RISK JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT PORTION OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY SE GA, COULD SEE A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TORNADO WATCH TODAY. THESE STORMS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY PRODUCING WIND GUSTS WITHIN
THE SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CRITERIA.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS UNTIL THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND NOON AS A WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE AREA, FOLLOWED BY INCREASING CHANCES OF
MODERATE SHOWERS IN THE 20-24Z TIMEFRAME. ONCE THE WARM FRONT
PASSES, GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KTS SHOULD REMAIN UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON. THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON, PERHAPS EMBEDDED IN A SWATH OF
PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED WITH TEMPOS BETWEEN 20-24Z AT
KSAV AND 21-01Z AT KCHS/KJZI. AFTER THE CONVECTIVE LINE, CLOUD
BASES ARE FORECAST TO LOWER TO AT LEAST IFR AS THE CORE OF THE
LOW TRACKS OVER THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE SFC COLD FRONT
SHOULD SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT, TAFS WILL INDICATED
NW WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NW BY 9Z. IFR CEILINGS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE 12Z TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL REMAIN LATE TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BUILDING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ALSO BEING
POSSIBLE. HIKED UP THE START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
ALL ZONES OUTSIDE THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED EARLIER ARRIVAL OF WINDS GREATER THAN 25 KNOTS, AND ALSO
DID INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR IN AN SCA FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. 6 FOOT WAVES WILL LIKELY REMAIN 10+NM OFFSHORE, WITH 3 TO 4
FOOT WAVES EXPECTED ALONG THE SHORE AND HIGHEST WAVES (8+ FT)
EXPECTED 60 NM OUT. LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS,
THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE (LEVEL 2 OUT OF 5) FOR STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY REQUIRE MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS OR
POTENTIALLY EVEN A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FROM SAVANNAH SOUTHWARDS,
SO REMAIN AWARE OF THAT POSSIBILITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
LIKELY SEE WINDS DIP BELOW SCA CRITERIA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT, BUT
A RESURGENCE IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS EXPLAINED BELOW.
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CONTINUING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO BECOME OUT
OF THE NORTH BY MONDAY MORNING. A SURGE OF COLD AIR PUSHES IN FROM
THE NORTH AFTER SUNRISE, WHICH LOOKS TO REINVIGORATE THE WINDS BACK
TO ABOVE SCA CRITERIA MONDAY MORNING. SPATIAL EXTENT OF THESE WINDS
REMAINS UNCERTAIN, WHICH IS WHY THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
NEARSHORE WATERS FROM SAVANNAH TO ALTAMAHA SOUND, GA DID NOT GET
THEIR SCA EXTENDED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE WINDS.
WINDS DECREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS ON MONDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.
THIS WILL CREATE A PINCHED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN
PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SCA WINDS CURRENTLY LOOKING TO REMAIN IN THE OFFSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA
WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ352-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ354.
APT/NED
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