455
FXUS62 KCHS 151819
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TATTNALL, LONG, AND
MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN GA. KEY MESSAGE 1 AND 2 HAVE BEEN SWAPPED
TO HIGHLIGHT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION, MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. ADDED A CLIMATE
SECTION TO HIGHLIGHT THE POSSIBILITY OF BREAKING THE
PRECIPITATION RECORDS AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY, AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
- 2) A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A SQUALL LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY, AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
APPROACHING THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, PROGGED TO REACH THE REGION
TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER. A REANALYZED
12Z KCHS RAOB SOUNDING WITH THE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURE CONFIRMS
PREVIOUS THINKING THAT THE SEVERE RISK THIS FAR NORTH IS LOW, WITH
ONLY 170 J/KG OF CAPE SHOWN. HOWEVER, FORECAST SOUNDINGS FURTHER
SOUTH, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE 300-
400 J/KG OF MU CAPE. THE MAIN THREAT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, WITH 200-300 J/KG OF DCAPE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HOWEVER, GIVEN IMPRESSIVE 0-1 KM SRH VALUES AROUND 200
M2/S2 THERE IS ALSO A LOW END TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. AN INCREASE IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE REGION GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. HI-RES
GUIDANCE, NAMELY THE RRFS AND THE HRRR, HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT IN
THE TIMING OF THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, PUSHING INTO
THE FAR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES AROUND 3 PM AND REACHING COASTAL ZONES
AROUND 5 OR 6 PM. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TATTNALL,
LONG, AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES IN GA THROUGH 8 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN.
AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE IS CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MID- LEVEL WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY, SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS TREK
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT. THE 12Z KCHS RAOB SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT VALUE
OF 0.95", WITH HI-RES MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATING THAT BY THIS
AFTERNOON PWATS AT KCHS WILL REACH 1.4 INCHES. GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-1"
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THESE VALUES COULD EXCEED THE RECORD
PRECIPITATION AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV, SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION
FOR MORE DETAILS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPACT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR AT KCHS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BETWEEN 21 AND 01 Z AT KCHS/KJZI AND SLIGHTLY EARLIER, 20 AND
24Z AT KSAV. REDUCED VSBYS, LOW CIGS, RAIN, AND LIGHTNING ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS CLEAR THE REGION LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OR EVEN LIFR.
THESE CIGS WILL LINGER INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING AND
DEVELOPING INTO AN MVFR CIG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SKC MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY BUILD THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS REACHING THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF THE 0-20 NM WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN
START GUSTING AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE SC NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT 25 KT WIND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SEA FOG COULD BE A CONCERN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
FEBRUARY 15:
KCHS: 0.87/1952
KSAV: 0.91/1894
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
CPM/JRL
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page