471
FXUS62 KCHS 152253
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
553 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE TORNADO WATCH OUT OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND REFLECTS ONGOING TRENDS. KEY MESSAGE 2 HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO IMPACT
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND ATLANTIC WATERS
INTO EVENING HOURS.
- 2) A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MUCH ACROSS THE REGION
INTO TONIGHT BRINGING MODERATE RAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND ATLANTIC
WATERS INTO EVENING HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO
REACH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND SHEAR ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA UNTIL FROPA OCCURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A SWATH
OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING MAINLY ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA, LIKELY TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE DURING THE NEXT HOUR BEFORE A LULL OF ACTIVITY OCCURS
EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO COLD FROPA OCCURRING. INSTABILITY REMAINS
WEAK BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
GUSTY WIND POTENTIAL IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE AT TIMES. ANY
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONCERN LIKELY COMES TO AN END WITH THE
INITIAL LINE SHIFTING OFFSHORE DUE TO A LACK OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY, ESPECIALLY ENTERING NIGHT HOURS. ALTHOUGH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP AND ENTER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH THE ARRIVING
FRONT, ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW STRONG/AND OR
SEVERE LEVELS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE CONTINUE TO MUCH ACROSS THE
REGION INTO TONIGHT BRINGING MODERATE RAINS.
AN IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE CLEARLY VISIBLE ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES, HELPING FORCE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LARGE
SWATH OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG COASTAL AREAS WELL AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE, WITH A LULL IN ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS AREAS WEST
OF I-95 ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY
EVENING. POCKETS OF MODERATE OR BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED
WITH THE INITIAL LINE OF CONVECTION SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE
NEXT HOUR, BEFORE ALL AREAS ARE PRECIP-FREE FOR A SHORT TIME THIS
EVENING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA
OVERNIGHT, HELPING PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS (DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY AT NIGHT). GUIDANCE REMAINS
CONSISTENT IN THE RAINFALL TOTALS, WITH AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.5-1"
EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION AFTER BOTH ROUNDS HAVE ENDED.
AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL IMPACT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BETWEEN MVFR/VFR AT KCHS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS
BETWEEN 21 AND 01 Z AT KCHS/KJZI AND SLIGHTLY EARLIER, 20 AND
24Z AT KSAV. REDUCED VSBYS, LOW CIGS, RAIN, AND LIGHTNING ARE
ALL POSSIBLE WITH THE LINE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. AFTER THE
SHOWERS/TSTORMS CLEAR THE REGION LOWER CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP, LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE IFR CATEGORY OR EVEN LIFR.
THESE CIGS WILL LINGER INTO DAYBREAK MONDAY BEFORE LIFTING AND
DEVELOPING INTO AN MVFR CIG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 18Z TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SKC MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY BUILD THROUGH EARLY
THIS EVENING, WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS REACHING THE OUTER PERIPHERY
OF THE 0-20 NM WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN
START GUSTING AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE SC NEARSHORE
AND GA OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT 25 KT WIND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY, WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SEA FOG COULD BE A CONCERN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
FEBRUARY 15:
KCHS: 0.87/1952
KSAV: 0.91/1894
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
CPM/DPB/JRL
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