641
FXUS62 KCHS 160112
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
812 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CONCERN HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM KEY MESSAGES.
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE KEY MESSAGE 1 TO ADDRESS RAINFALL
AND GUSTY SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINS.
A SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM UPSTREAM ENTERING INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT HOUR, ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS INSTABILITY WANES EARLY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE INDICATES
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHIFTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA APPROACHING MIDNIGHT, BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE 0.5-1" RANGE FOR THE DAY/EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE FAR GEORGIA INTERIOR EARLY EVENING (CANDLER, TATTNALL,
EVANS, BULLOCH COUNTIES), ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW STRONG THUNDERSTORM THRESHOLDS, BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR TO COLD FROPA OVERNIGHT, BUT THE CONCERN
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO
LOWER TO IFR (POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER) AT ALL TAF SITES, STARTING AT
CHS/JZI AROUND 02Z AND AT SAV AROUND 04Z. SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD ALSO LEAD TO TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
LOWER CIGS AT SAV, MAINLY IN THE 02-04Z THIS EVENING. ONCE IFR CIGS
ARE MET, EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT
BEFORE GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AROUND 14Z MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN AROUND 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 18-22 KT RANGE
LATE MORNING (STRONGEST AT CHS/JZI). CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE
TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 18-19Z MONDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SKC MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY BUILD THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME 6 FOOTERS REACHING THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE 0-
20 NM WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF SURGE OF WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
HARBOR FOLLOWING COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WNW AFTER MIDNIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN START
GUSTING AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE SC NEARSHORE AND GA OFFSHORE
WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT 25 KT WIND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SEA FOG COULD BE A CONCERN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
FEBRUARY 15:
KCHS: 0.87/1952
KSAV: 0.91/1894
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
CPM/DPB/JRL
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