770
FXUS62 KCHS 160207
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARINE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TONIGHT. THE
AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT MINOR TAF
AMENDMENTS THIS EVENING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING
GUSTY SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT BRINGING GUSTY SHOWERS AND MODERATE RAINS.
A SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON MID-LEVEL WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING,
EVENTUALLY FORCING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A LARGE SWATH OF SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM UPSTREAM ENTERING INLAND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE NEXT HOUR, ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENING
STATE AS INSTABILITY WANES EARLY NIGHT. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE INDICATES
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHIFTING WEST TO EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS EVENING, AND EVENTUALLY INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA APPROACHING MIDNIGHT, BRINGING TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE 0.5-1" RANGE FOR THE DAY/EVENING BEFORE
THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE IN
ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR A THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE FAR GEORGIA INTERIOR EARLY EVENING (CANDLER, TATTNALL,
EVANS, BULLOCH COUNTIES), ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW STRONG THUNDERSTORM THRESHOLDS, BUT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS IN THE 20-30 MPH AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE
IS ALSO A RISK FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA
AND SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR TO COLD FROPA OVERNIGHT, BUT THE CONCERN
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATE.
AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS BEFORE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. AS THIS FEATURE APPROACHES, CIGS ARE EXPECTED
TO LOWER TO IFR AT ALL TAF SITES, STARTING AROUND 04Z TONIGHT.
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENTERING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND LOW CIGS
DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COULD LEAD TO TEMPO
MVFR CONDITIONS PRIOR TO IFR CIGS, MAINLY BETWEEN THE 02-04Z
TIME RANGE AT ALL SITES THIS EVENING. ONCE IFR CIGS ARE MET,
EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR BY AROUND 14Z MONDAY. GUSTY NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS RETURN AROUND 14Z AT ALL TERMINALS THEN SLOWLY
WEAKEN DURING THE AFTERNOON, GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 18-22 KT
RANGE LATE MORNING (STRONGEST AT CHS/JZI). CONDITIONS SHOULD
THEN IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 18-19Z MONDAY AS
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD LINGER INTO
MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE BECOMING SKC MONDAY NIGHT.
MARINE
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A
STRONG COLD FRONT. SEAS WILL ALSO STEADILY BUILD THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING, WITH SOME 6-7 FOOTERS REACHING THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA 0-20 NM WATERS FOR A FEW HOURS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS
OUTSIDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A BRIEF
SURGE OF WINDS TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE
HARBOR FOLLOWING COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF FOR A FEW
HOURS WITH LIGHT RAIN/SHOWER ACTIVITY AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN
START GUSTING AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA
NEARSHORE AND GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT 25 KT
WIND GUSTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH CONDITIONS BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
SEA FOG COULD BE A CONCERN MID TO LATE WEEK AS SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGS
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
CLIMATE
RECORD PRECIPITATION:
FEBRUARY 15:
KCHS: 0.87/1952
KSAV: 0.91/1894
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
CPM/DPB/JRL
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