506
FXUS62 KCHS 161121
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
621 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAFS. ADDED A
CLIMATE SECTION FOR NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY.
INTRODUCED A KEY MESSAGE FOR WARM AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS LATER
THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA BUILDS
DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONSISTENTLY FLIRT WITH THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT
CLIMATOLOGY, PER THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES,
WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL DAILY HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. NOT
CURRENTLY FORECASTING RECORD TEMPERATURES, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
WITH FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT
TIMES, AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK OFF AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHEN INSTABILITY LEVELS
RISE, AND WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS OVERALL GOOD, AGREEMENT ISN'T
HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT WHAT DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO BE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT ON
SUNDAY.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 12Z TAFS, IR SATELLITE INDICATED AN EXPANSIVE AREA
OF RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND SE GA.
TAFS WILL INITIALIZE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS. GUSTY WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE NNE WINDS
AFTER DAYBREAK, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS UNTIL 18-22Z. AFTER
18Z, CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN TO VFR WITH DECREASING WINDS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK.
MARINE
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS
THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WINDS WILL TURN FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WITH GUSTS INCREASING FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING.
REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON, HIGHLIGHTING GUSTY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILD ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES TODAY AND WILL REMAIN INTO THE MID-
WEEK. FAIR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES THIS EVENING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. GIVEN SHELF WATER
TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WIND DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE
COAST, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 DEGREES, SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE LATE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME, A MENTION OF PATCHY SEA FOG WILL
BE LIMITED TO THURSDAY NIGHT. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT MAY DISRUPT ANY SEA FOG. HOWEVER, IF RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG WILL INCREASE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
374.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ352.
APT/NED
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