810
FXUS62 KCHS 161759
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1259 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED ALL SECTIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF BUILDS DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONSISTENTLY FLIRT WITH THE 90TH
PERCENTILE OF CLIMATOLOGY, PER THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLES, WHICH WILL RESULT IN DAILY MAXIMUM SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S, WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL DAILY HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. NOT CURRENTLY FORECASTING RECORD
TEMPERATURES, BUT THAT COULD CHANGE WITH FUTURE FORECAST
UPDATES.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WARM TEMPERATURES AT
TIMES, AS ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO SPARK LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHEN INSTABILITY INCREASES
(SBCAPE VALUES ~200-400 J/KG), AND WHILE MODEL AGREEMENT IS
OVERALL GOOD, AGREEMENT IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PINPOINT WHAT DAY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AT SOME POINT
THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MARINE
EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS
UNTIL 11PM THIS EVENING BASED ON LATEST WAVE GUIDANCE KEEPING
SOME 6 FT SEAS IN OUTER PORTIONS OF THIS ZONE THROUGH THE
EVENING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE MARINE ZONES
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GIVEN SHELF WATER TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 DEGREES, WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE COAST, AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 60
DEGREES, SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATE WEEK. INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, AS WELL AS WINDS GUSTING
20-25 KT, COULD DISRUPT ANY SEA FOG. AT THIS TIME, MENTION OF
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL BE LIMITED TO THURSDAY. HOWEVER, IF RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY AND BEYOND THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA
FOG WILL INCREASE.
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS THIS WEEKEND.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE MARINE
ZONES AS WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 25 KT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
BRS/JRL
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