835
FXUS62 KCHS 172351
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE STARTING WEDNESDAY.
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND
INTO THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC WILL DRIVE DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND HELP TO
PROVIDE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. ENSEMBLE SUPPORT FOR VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IS
STRONG, WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COLUMN ON THE ORDER OF 2-3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL AND ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. THE
RESULT IS WEDNESDAY HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S (8-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL), THURSDAY HIGHS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S (10-15 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL), AND FRIDAY HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S (15+
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). IN FACT, FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE
WITHIN SHOUTING DISTANCE OF DAILY RECORDS (SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW). SATURDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER DAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AND USHERING IN COOLER AIR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WITH THE WARM UP WILL COME SOME INCREASE IN RAIN POTENTIAL PRIMARILY
IN THE FORM OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AS THE AREA REMAINS LARGELY DEVOID
OF ANY NOTABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING. DIURNAL COVERAGE WILL PERHAPS BE
HIGHEST AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE UPSTREAM COLD
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER TO THE AREA. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WEAK INSTABILITY AT
BEST.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK FOR PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS LIKELY LIMIT
THIS CONCERN. OTHERWISE, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD BECOME
BREEZY WEDNESDAY, GUSTING TO AROUND 20 KT AT ALL TERMINALS FOR
A BULK OF AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: MOSTLY VFR THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR
OVERNIGHT FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD.
MARINE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE WIND
SPEEDS, PERHAPS GETTING INTO THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE AT TIME,
ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS A BIT MORE. THE GUST
POTENTIAL IS LIKELY LIMITED DUE TO SST'S ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHICH WILL PRODUCE SHALLOW MIXING PROFILES
WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. EXPECT INCREASED POTENTIAL OF
STRONGER WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT.
ANOTHER FORECAST CONSIDERATION WITH THE ANTICIPATED MODEST SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THE NEARSHORE WATERS ARE QUITE COOL AS NOTED ABOVE, AND
THE EXPECTED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL USHER IN UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD. CONFIDENCE
IN THE CONDUCIVE SETUP IS MODERATE ACROSS THE GENERAL MID TO LATE
WEEK TIME PERIOD, BUT SPECIFIC TIMING HIGHLIGHTING THE GREATEST
THREAT IS LOW. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE ISN'T VERY AGGRESSIVE AT THIS
POINT EITHER. FOR NOW WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG
FOR LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS/BSH/DPB
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