164
FXUS62 KCHS 181054
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
554 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA BUILDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONSISTENTLY REACH AND/OR EXCEED
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT CLIMATOLOGY, AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PEAKING ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL DAILY HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN THE MID 60S COMPARED TO NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S. THE
FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY CONTAIN ANY NEW RECORDS, THOUGH WE'LL
GET CLOSEST TO THE RECORDS SET FOR FEBRUARY 20 AS WE'LL BE WARMEST
THAT DAY WITH INLAND AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WHILE SCATTERED DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON, ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ADD
TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS AT TIMES, PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WHEN
INSTABILITY LEVELS RISE, WITH THE 18.00Z MODELS INDICATING THAT MAY
HAPPEN ON SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH. WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR, SOME OF THE VARIOUS AI/ML
OUTPUT WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY. ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS
OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS ONCE MIXING
BEGINS AROUND 16Z. GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
MARINE
TODAY, THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING, WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTS ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS MAY APPROACH 25 KTS, BUT EXPECTED
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SHOULD WEAKEN FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WATERS WILL BEGIN TO STEEPEN. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SC WATERS ON FRIDAY. EXPECT INCREASED POTENTIAL
OF STRONGER WINDS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. GALE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS, GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE COAST, TODAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 50 DEGREES.
GIVEN PARALLEL WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
WATER TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED.
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE PEAKS ON THURSDAY WITH LIKELY VALUES OF
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5 MILES.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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