820
FXUS62 KCHS 181800
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS EXPECTED
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA BUILDS
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, WITH WARM AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE
FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE REGION INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONSISTENTLY REACH AND/OR EXCEED
THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT CLIMATOLOGY, AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, WHICH WILL RESULT IN
DAILY MAXIMUM SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, PEAKING ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILARLY WARM IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S,
WHICH WILL BE CLOSER TO OUR NORMAL DAILY HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THE FORECAST DOES NOT CURRENTLY CONTAIN ANY NEW RECORDS,
THOUGH WE'LL GET CLOSEST TO THE RECORD TEMPERATURES SET FOR
FEBRUARY 20 AS WE'LL BE WARMEST THAT DAY WITH INLAND AREAS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY (10-20%), RAIN
CHANCES RAMP UP FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FORECAST. ISENTROPIC LIFT FROM
POSITIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ADD TO THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS.
INSTABILITY WILL RISE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST, WHICH LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY'S PEAK SBCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 500 J/KG AND BULK
SHEAR AROUND 20 KT ARE WORTH WATCHING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
WHILE DETAILS ARE UNCLEAR, SOME OF THE VARIOUS AI/ML OUTPUT
WOULD SUGGEST MONITORING FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KT WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET BEFORE QUICKLY SUBSIDING. SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME GUSTY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. PATCHY GROUND
FOG SHOULD BE LIMITED OVERNIGHT TO AREAS FAR INLAND, WELL AWAY
FROM THE TERMINALS, AS MID AND HIGH CLOUDS PASS OVER; THUS NO
MENTION IN THE TAF.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
POSSIBLE FOG DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AS WELL AS
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, BRINGING SOUTHWEST WINDS. THERE COULD BE A BIT OF A
WIND SURGE ON FRIDAY, WHICH MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS DURING THAT TIME PERIOD, ESPECIALLY THE
CHARLESTON WATERS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. EXPECT WINDS TO CLOCK AROUND
TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE, BRINGING NEAR GALE TO GALE
CONDITIONS TO ALL OF OUR OCEAN ZONES.
SEA FOG: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER HIGHER DEW POINTS OVER
THE COOLER SHELF WATERS INTO THIS WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN GENERALLY
MAKES IT EASIER FOR SEA FOG TO FORM. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE PERIODS
OF STRONGER WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THIS TENDS TO MAKE IT MORE
DIFFICULT FOR SEA FOG TO FORM AND/OR MAINTAIN ITSELF. ADDITIONALLY,
PERIODS OF SHOWERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY COULD HAVE SIMILAR IMPACTS.
THEREFORE, WE HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST AT TIMES. HOWEVER,
THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED, ESPECIALLY
BASED ON NEAR TERM OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page