937
FXUS62 KCHS 190555
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS STARTS TODAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED AND WARM CONDITIONS STARTS
TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE GULF/CARIBBEAN INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLOW MOVING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING
EASTWARDS INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARM AND MOIST
SOUTHWESTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER, WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN CONSISTENTLY REACHING AND/OR EXCEEDING THE 90TH
PERCENTILE WRT CLIMATOLOGY, AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL
AWARENESS TABLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, MAKING IT FEEL MORE LIKE APRIL
THAN FEBRUARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS, CLOSER TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST, WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES LARGELY IN THE 60S. THE WARM HIGHS EXPAND INTO FRIDAY,
WITH WIDESPREAD LOWER 80S FOR INLAND AREAS, LOWERING A TOUCH INTO
SATURDAY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. THE LATEST FORECAST
CONTINUES TO KEEP ANY RECORDS AT BAY, THOUGH WE'LL GET CLOSEST TO
THE RECORDS SET FOR FEBRUARY 20 AS WE'LL BE WARMEST THAT DAY WITH
INLAND AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
IN ADDITION TO CREATING WARM TEMPERATURES, POSITIVE THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN WEAK SYNOPTIC LIFT AT TIMES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS AS WELL. AMIDST PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.25", THE
WEAK LIFT WILL CREATE PERIODS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS, THOUGH WITHOUT A
STRONG FORCING MECHANISM RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE AT UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT TODAY AND FRIDAY,
CONFIDENCE IN THE SPATIAL EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE SHOWERS IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING MECHANISM.
ON SATURDAY, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT A COLD FRONT WILL
BE APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AS INSTABILITY
BUILDS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
DETAILS REMAIN UNCLEAR, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING 500+ J/KG
OF SBCAPE AND 40+ KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY BE AVAILABLE, WITH
VARIOUS AI/ML OUTPUT SUGGESTING THE NEED FOR MONITORING FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OFF INTO THE NEAR-
SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH THE COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH BRINGING AN END TO THE WARM AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. ROUNDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PASS OVER
THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD
STRENGTHEN WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KTS ONCE MIXING BEGINS AROUND
15Z. EACH TAF WILL FEATURE A PROB30 FOR LIGHT SHOWERS FROM 19-22Z.
GUSTS SHOULD END AROUND SUNSET.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: THE POTENTIAL FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE FOG
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, AS WELL AS INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE
THE MARINE ZONES WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MID-WEST. THIS PATTERN
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 15 KTS WITH 3 TO 5 FT
SEAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT PINCHES ON FRIDAY,
WIND GUSTS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE SC WATERS MAY GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KTS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS. A
FRONTAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF THE
DEEP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT, TRACKING EAST ON SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT IS TIMED TO PUSH OVER THE MARINE ZONES SATURDAY EVENING,
WITH CAA AND STRENGTHENING WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC/GA
WATERS WITH GALES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. GUSTY WINDS
AND ELEVATED SEAS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY.
SEA FOG: THE PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS,
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE COAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD PROVIDE DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE
NEARSHORE WATER TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW 50S. GIVEN
PARALLEL WINDS AND DEWPOINTS NEARLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THE WATER
TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST PATCHY SEA FOG IS EXPECTED. PROBABILISTIC
GUIDANCE SHOWS LIKELY VALUES OF VISIBILITY LESS THAN 0.5 MILES AT
TIMES LATE THIS WEEK. THE SEA FOG POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND ROUNDS OF SHOWERS.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KCXM: 78/1918
KSAV: 84/1991
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
APT/NED
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