132
FXUS62 KCHS 202328
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR RECORD WARM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEA FOG ALONG PARTS
OF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT THE
REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- 3) SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD WARM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SEA FOG
ALONG PARTS OF THE COAST. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
IMPACT THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RISING STEADILY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
ARE TRACK TO MAX OUT NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.
THE COOLER WATERS OF CHARLESTON HARBOR SHOULD KEEP THE OBSERVED
HIGH WELL BELOW RECORD TERRITORY AT KCXM. IT WILL BE A WARM AND
HUMID NIGHT AS THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT BECOMES BETTER DEFINED. LOWS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR AROUND
MIDNIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO HOLD OR SLOWLY RISE
OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. LOWS
LOOK TO GENERALLY BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 60S WHICH COULD
CHALLENGE THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR FEBRUARY 21. SEE THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
SEA FOG WILL LINGER ALONG MAINLY THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG
COULD IMPACT THE BEACHES EARLY SATURDAY.
ONE OR POSSIBLY TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND SETTLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
LOWCOUNTRY INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SOME BRIEF, HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD ACCOMPANY THIS BAND, BUT NO FLOODING ISSUES ARE
EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS AND A FEW CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES COULD ALSO OCCUR GIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING INTO AN
AREA OF HIGHER DCAPE (500-800 J/KG). SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT DUE TO INCREASING ISENTROPIC
ASCENT/WARM AIR ADVECTION. SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THERE ARE NO MAJOR SHIFTS IN THE ONGOING SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR
THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND WILL STALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS DEEP-LAYERED
FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT DIGS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SPREADS EAST. THIS
FORCING COUPLED WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS THE
AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
WHILE MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY LOOK TO REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR, THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH TO ALLOW SOME DEGREE OF INSTABILITY TO WORK NORTH INTO THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION AS WELL AS AREAS ADJACENT TO THE
CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS WELL REFLECTED
IN THE LARGE INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) NOTED AT KMKS, KCHS AND
KDYB. FARTHER SOUTH, THE CONFIDENCE IN INSTABILITY IS MUCH
HIGHER WITH SOME SPOTS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA LIKELY TO SEE SBCAPE
NEARING 1000 J/KG AT AT TIMES. COMPLICATING MATTERS IS A
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM OFF COLDER ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS WILL LIKELY
HAVE SOME STABILIZING INFLUENCE EVEN IF THE WARM FRONT PUSHES
NORTH OF THE SANTEE RIVER AND INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF THE LOWCOUNTRY. GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF BULK-SHEAR OF 50-70 KT, CLUSTERS AND BANDS OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTION ARE A POSSIBILITY WITH THE PRIMARY RISK
BEING DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SECONDARY RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO NEAR BREAKS IN ANY QLCS/BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE RISK
FOR SEVERE TSTMS STILL LOOKS HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
BETWEEN 2 PM-9 PM, ROUGHLY ALONG/SOUTH OF I-16 AND AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST, POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS BEAUFORT AND
HARDEEVILLE IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THIS IS THE AREA WHERE
THE BEST JUXTAPOSITION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS EXPECTED.
DAY 2 WFO GUIDANCE FROM THE SPC CURRENTLY OUTLINES THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE TSTMS
WHICH STILL LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR THE CURRENT SET UP AND LEVEL
OF UNCERTAINTY. SHOULD THE RISK FOR HIGHER INSTABILITY BE
REALIZED, THEN THE RISK LEVEL MAY BE INCREASED IN FUTURE
FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA, POSSIBLY FAR
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN ON SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK.
A COLD FRONT, ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY, WILL
PUSH OFF THE COAST SUNDAY MORNING AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL USHER IN A
CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH
WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AS WELL AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S
FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY MORNING LOWS ARE FORECAST TO FALL INTO THE
UPPER 20S INLAND WITH LOW 30S ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, IN THE
PRESENCE OF PERSISTENT AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS, WIND CHILL
VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AND POTENTIALLY EVEN THE UPPER TEENS FOR
SOME INLAND COUNTIES. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
FOR SOME INLAND COUNTIES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
EXPECT MONDAY TO BE A VERY CHILLY DAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO
REACH 50 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. SUCH VALUES WOULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY.
THE COLDEST NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITH LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S ALONG THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT, WINDS SHOULDN'T BE QUITE AS STRONG. THIS SHOULD
YIELD WIND CHILL VALUES THAT ARE QUITE SIMILAR, WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 20S AND THE POTENTIAL FOR POCKETS OF UPPER TEENS.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. TUESDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER CHILLY DAY, THOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REBOUND BY SEVERAL DEGREES FROM MONDAY.
LOOK FOR MOST PLACES TO RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV AND DOMINATE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. SOME SHOWERS COULD IMPACT KSAV THROUGH AROUND 10 PM,
HOWEVER RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT LIKELY WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE REGION TOMORROW
(SATURDAY) WITH THE REGION PLACED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR IN THE
MORNING HOURS. LOW STRATUS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION, WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS PREVAILING FROM AROUND DAYBREAK
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A
THUNDERSTORM WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION AROUND SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING. THE 00Z TAFS ONLY MENTION VCSH NEAR THE VERY
END OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL LIKELY IMPACT
THE TERMINALS RIGHT NEAR THE END OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING PRIMARILY DUE TO POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOG AND STRATUS
COULD ALSO IMPACT THE TERMINALS SATURDAY NIGHT UNTIL A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
MARINE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: GUSTY WINDS WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH
NEARSHORE LEG THROUGH EARLY EVENING, HOWEVER GUSTS WILL BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND THE SCA IN EFFECT EARLIER
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ELSEWHERE, SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE 10-15 KT RANGE OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT. THERE ARE NO WIND/SEA CONCERNS THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD PUSH OFFSHORE OF
THE COAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT,
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS AND CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING.
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY MORNING AND INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS AND SEAS PEAKING SUNDAY EVENING
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. IN FACT, THERE IS AN INCREASING
CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF GALES LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS, PERHAPS BEST IN THE OUTER GA
WATERS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVE BACK
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
SEA FOG: FOG CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE AND THE MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE WATERS HAS BEEN
CANCELED.
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA FOG COULD DEVELOP AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AND LINGER INTO THE DAY. ANOTHER MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 20:
KCHS: 82/2018
KSAV: 84/1991
FEBRUARY 21:
KSAV: 84/2018
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KCHS: 62/2023
KSAV: 63/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH/CPM/ST
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