721
FXUS62 KCHS 212330
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN REMOVED AS THE SEVERE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAS ENDED. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK.
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COASTLINE ON SUNDAY MORNING, EXPECT
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL YIELD A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIRMASS FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR SOME AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS
AND CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BY MONDAY
MORNING, LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOW 30S ALONG THE
COASTLINE, BUT GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE LOW TO MID 20S
AREA-WIDE, WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE INLAND. THEREFORE, A COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY MIGHT BE WARRANTED. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 50F (MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEB.).
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE
COASTLINE. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING MUCH LIGHTER, WIND CHILLS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY, REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD WILL INITIALIZE WITH LIFR AT KCHS, MVFR AT
KJZI, AND VFR AT KSAV. RESTRICTIVE CIGS WILL MOVE INTO KJZI AND
KSAV OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH ALL TERMINALS EXPECTED TO BE
LIFR/IFR BY MIDNIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL. CIGS WILL IMPROVE WITH DAYBREAK
SUNDAY, IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY NW WINDS
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS 25 TO
35 KNOTS EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THROUGH THIS EVENING: A STRONGER BAND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS. THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KT, ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS,
AND CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING. SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA TONIGHT, DRAGGING A
STRONG COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OUR WATERS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, THEN QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE, CAUSING WINDS TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN START
BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYNOPTIC FEATURES ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING
GALE CONDITIONS TO THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEREFORE, WE UPGRADED THE GALE WATCHES TO GALE WARNINGS. NORMALLY,
WE WOULD HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT BEFORE THE WARNINGS.
HOWEVER, THE WINDS RAMP UP SO RAPIDLY THAT THE ADVISORIES WOULD ONLY
BE IN EFFECT FOR 2-3 HOURS. THEREFORE, WE JUST OPTED TO START THE
WARNINGS A LITTLE EARLIER. WE ALSO HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON MONDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE
NOTICEABLY LOWER ON TUESDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OVER OUR REGION.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KSAV: 84/2018
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 21:
KCHS: 62/2023
KSAV: 63/2023
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ330.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-
354.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
CPM/SST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page