633
FXUS62 KCHS 221025
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
525 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 TO ADJUST TIMING OF LAKE
WIND ADVISORY. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE MARINE SECTION TO
ADJUST TIMING OF GALE WARNINGS AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS LATE THIS MORNING
INTO EVENING.
- 2) SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL AREAS LATE THIS
MORNING INTO EVENING.
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA EARLY
TODAY, LIKELY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST BY
MID-LATE MORNING AND ENDING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS LOCALLY.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE AMPLE
MIXING INTO 35-40 KT LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS, FAVORING WEST/NORTHWEST
SFC WINDS GUSTING TO AROUND 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING. THERE REMAINS A LOW RISK FOR SFC GUSTS TO APPROACH 40 MPH
DURING PEAK DIURNAL HEATING GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND PACKED PRESSURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE WEST, BUT THE COVERAGE/DURATION OF EVENT APPEARS
LIMITED AND TO FALL JUST SHY/SHORT OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA. SHOULD GUIDANCE AND SFC OBS TREND HIGHER IN
REGARDS TO WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON, A WIND ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED. REGARDLESS, THESE WINDS SHOULD PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE (GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT), WHICH CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 9 PM TODAY. WAVES
BETWEEN 1-2 FT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LAKE, LARGEST ALONG THE
EASTERN LAKESHORE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE MID-WEEK.
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE COASTLINE THIS MORNING, EXPECT COLD,
DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND IT. THIS
WILL YIELD A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND WIND CHILLS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR SOME AREAS. NAEFS ESAT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE ANAMOLIES HINT AT THESE BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WELL
WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -3 TO -4 FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND
LOW 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE, BUT BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE
LOW TO MID 20S AREA-WIDE, WITH UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE INLAND. THE
01Z.NBM MINIMUM TEMPS. FORECAST FOR MONDAY MORNING INDICATE A IQR
RANGE OF 2-3 DEGREES, REFLECTING A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DISTRIBUTION
AND REINFORCING A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALSO,
THE 00Z.HREF INDICATES 80-90% CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING
BELOW 20F ON MONDAY MORNING FOR INLAND COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA (SPECIFICALLY SCREVEN, JENKINS, CANDLER, TATTNALL, EVANS,
AND BULLOCH COUNTIES) AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F
(MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEB.).
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE
COASTLINE. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING MUCH LIGHTER, WIND CHILLS WILL
STILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE
01Z.NBM MINIMUM TEMPS. FORECAST FOR TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE A IQR
RANGE OF 1-2 DEGREES, REFLECTING A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DISTRIBUTION
AND REINFORCING A HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN.
ANOTHER COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY, REACHING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CHS/JZI: PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN/SHOWERS OCCURRING UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND
13Z THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR BEHIND THE
FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN BECOME VFR AS SKIES CLEAR OUT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON, PEAKING
BETWEEN 25-30 KT MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
EVENING HOURS, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
SAV: PERIODS OF MVFR AND TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES BY AROUND
13Z. MVFR CONDITIONS COULD HOLD ON FOR A FEW HOURS THEREAFTER, BUT
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BY AROUND 16Z. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME
GUSTY POST FROPA, PEAKING AROUND 30 KT DURING AFTERNOON HOURS. GUSTY
WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFTER DAYBREAK AND
BRINGING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONT PROMOTES LOW-LVL
MIXING INTO 40-45 KT 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS. GALE WARNINGS REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT AT TIMES. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS WELL.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE MORNING MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-
WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS COULD INCREASE/BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MID-WEEK, WELL AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE WEEK.
SEA FOG: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEARSHORE
WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, UNTIL A COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. ONGOING RAIN/SHOWERS SHOULD LIMIT A
TRUE SEA FOG EVENT, BUT VSBYS COULD BECOME REDUCED TO BELOW 1 NM AT
TIMES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST
MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ374.
DENNIS/DPB
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