036
FXUS62 KCHS 221306
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
806 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
...WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY - WIND ADVISORY ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE ISSUANCE OF A WIND
ADVISORY AND THE MARINE SECTION WAS UPDATED TO HIGHLIGHT AN
UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY.
- 2) SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO
THE MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINDY CONDITION TODAY.
22/1245Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED THE COLD FRONT NEAR THE COAST
AND WILL TRANSLATE OFFSHORE SHORTLY WITH THE CLEARING LINE
FOLLOWING SOON AFTER. STRONG POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION
AND THE ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL OVERTAKE THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL
MIXING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL
AREAS TO REFLECT THIS. FOR LAKE MOULTRIE, HAZARDOUS LAKE
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH WAVES AS HIGH AS 2-3 FT AND
SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY WAS SUPERSEDED
BY THE WIND ADVISORY OVER LAND AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE
LIKELY ALREADY OCCURRED OR WILL OCCUR SHORTLY BEFORE
TEMPERATURES STEADY OUT AND THEN FALL AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTENSIFIES. HOURLY TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT GOING TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURN TONIGHT AND PERSIST
INTO THE MID-WEEK.
AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE COASTLINE THIS MORNING, EXPECT
COLD, DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND
IT. THIS WILL YIELD A CONSIDERABLY COLDER AIRMASS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WELL BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WIDESPREAD
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS, AND
WIND CHILLS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FOR SOME
AREAS. NAEFS ESAT MINIMUM TEMPERATURE ANAMOLIES HINT AT THESE
BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WELL WITH VALUES RANGING FROM -3 TO
-4 FOR TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL THIS AFTERNOON AS BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES
THROUGH TONIGHT. BY MONDAY MORNING, LOWS WILL REACH THE UPPER
20S INLAND AND LOW 30S ALONG THE COASTLINE, BUT BREEZY WINDS
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE LOW TO MID 20S AREA-WIDE, WITH UPPER
TEENS POSSIBLE INLAND. THE 01Z.NBM MINIMUM TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MORNING INDICATE A IQR RANGE OF 2-3 DEGREES, REFLECTING A
TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DISTRIBUTION AND REINFORCING A HIGH DEGREE OF
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. ALSO, THE 00Z.HREF INDICATES 80-90%
CHANCE OF WIND CHILL VALUES DROPPING BELOW 20F ON MONDAY
MORNING FOR INLAND COUNTIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
(SPECIFICALLY SCREVEN, JENKINS, CANDLER, TATTNALL, EVANS, AND
BULLOCH COUNTIES) AND A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR THESE AREAS. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH
50F (MORE THAN 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEB.).
THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S INLAND AND UPPER 20S
NEAR THE COASTLINE. DESPITE WIND SPEEDS BEING MUCH LIGHTER, WIND
CHILLS WILL STILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S, WITH A FEW
UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. ADDITIONALLY, THE 01Z.NBM MINIMUM TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY MORNING INDICATE A IQR RANGE OF 1-2 DEGREES, REFLECTING
A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DISTRIBUTION AND REINFORCING A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AGAIN. ANOTHER COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE WARRANTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY, REACHING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 50S.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CHS/JZI: TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-13Z THIS
MORNING BEFORE A COLD FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. CONDITIONS WILL
QUICKLY IMPROVE TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS, THEN TO VFR BY AROUND
15Z. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW LATE MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING BETWEEN 25-30 KT MID
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
SAV: TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12-14Z THIS
MORNING, BUT WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE TO VFR FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FOLLOW LATE
MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, PEAKING AROUND 30 KT
MID AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT, BUT WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO THE 15-20 KT RANGE
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR.
MARINE
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING. ANY RISK FOR SEA FOG WILL END
SHORTLY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE WATERS.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, LIKELY SHIFTING OFFSHORE AFTER DAYBREAK
AND BRINGING INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONT PROMOTES
LOW-LVL MIXING INTO 40-45 KT 1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS. GALE
WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY FOR GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT AT
TIMES.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TO BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS LATE MORNING MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID-
WEEK. HOWEVER, WINDS AND SEAS COULD INCREASE/BUILD TO NEAR SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS MID-WEEK, WELL AHEAD OF LARGE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE REGION LATE WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
ST
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