045
FXUS62 KCHS 221743
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1243 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
...WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO COLD WEATHER
TONIGHT...
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES 1 AND 2 HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CURRENT
TRENDS. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ADDRESS GALES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
- 2) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURNS
TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET.
THE COLD FRONT IS NOW WELL OFFSHORE. POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND THE ASSOCIATED ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE WILL CONTINUE
TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH 20-30 MPH WITH
GUSTS AS HIGH AS 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA,
INCLUDING A 44 MPH GUST AT THE SAVANNAH INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
AROUND 1130 AM. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT, BUT WAS
EXTENDED SLIGHTLY UNTIL 7 PM. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS AFTER SUNSET, ALTHOUGH ELEVATED WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE ARE CAPABLE OF
DOWNING SMALL TREES AND LARGE LIMBS. DRIVING COULD ALSO BE
DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK.
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTERED SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
BUILDS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
AND THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY, THE LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS INLAND TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 20 AT THE COAST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT IS A BIT MARGINAL
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WHERE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY EVERYWHERE WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AT 20 DEGREES, BUT AN ADVISORY SEEMED
WARRANTED GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. A LINGERING NORTHWEST WIND
WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S, WHICH IS A
BIG CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER. WHILE FULL BOUNDARY LAYER BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD GO FAIRLY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW SPOTS COULD APPROACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND, BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED. THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS
WILL BE REASSESSED ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
22/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 23/18Z. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GALE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45 KT
GALES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 30-35 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY EVENING, SO THE GALE
WARNING THERE WILL BE REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHTS, RANGING FROM 2-3
FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN IN PORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING LOWER WINDS AND SEAS. AS THE HIGH
PASSES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE A
SURGE OF WINDS, WHICH MAY PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY PROMPT ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
047>052.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ374.
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