669
FXUS62 KCHS 230009
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
709 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 REGARDING GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN
REMOVED AS THE GUSTS HAVE SUBSIDED AND THE WIND ADVISORY WAS
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR LAKE MOULTRIE, VALID THROUGH 7 AM, AS GUSTS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE LAKE OVERNIGHT. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY, VALID
INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
REFLECT THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES RETURNS
TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
RETURNS TONIGHT AND LINGERS INTO MID-WEEK.
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AS
SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CENTERED SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
BUILDS SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH
AND THE DEPARTING NOR'EASTER WILL KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT. AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S JUST BEFORE
DAYBREAK MONDAY, THE LINGERING ELEVATED WINDS WILL HELP DRIVE
WIND CHILLS INTO THE MID-UPPER TEENS INLAND TO WITHIN A DEGREE
OR TWO OF 20 AT THE COAST. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8 AM MONDAY FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. IT IS A BIT MARGINAL
FOR THE COASTAL ZONES WHERE IT SEEMS UNLIKELY EVERYWHERE WILL
SEE WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AT 20 DEGREES, BUT AN ADVISORY SEEMED
WARRANTED GIVEN THE NEAR RECORD TO RECORD WARMTH THAT HAS BEEN
EXPERIENCED RECENTLY.
IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLE COLDER FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S/NEAR 50. A LINGERING NORTHWEST WIND
WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S, WHICH IS A
BIG CHANGE FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL OCCUR MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
DRAWS CLOSER. WHILE FULL BOUNDARY LAYER BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT, WINDS SHOULD GO FAIRLY LIGHT, ESPECIALLY
INLAND. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER-MID 20S INLAND TO THE
LOWER-MID 30S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW SPOTS COULD APPROACH COLD
WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA INLAND, BUT IT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY
ISOLATED/LOCALIZED. THE NEED FOR AN ADVISORY FOR THESE AREAS
WILL BE REASSESSED ON MONDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV.
GUSTY NW WINDS WILL WANE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, HOWEVER WINDS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH GUSTS
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE FRIDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH MONDAY: HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WITH GALE CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT ALL WATERS TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS OF 35-45 KT
GALES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 20-30 KT WITHIN 20 NM
AND 30-35 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. GALE WARNINGS
ARE IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE
HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE FORCE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW
IN EFFECT. THERE WILL BE A LARGE GRADIENT IN WAVE HEIGHTS,
RANGING FROM 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO AS HIGH AS 10 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. MARINERS ARE URGED TO REMAIN
IN PORT.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE
WATERS ON TUESDAY, BRINGING LOWER WINDS AND SEAS. AS THE HIGH
PASSES OFFSHORE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE SHOULD BE A
SURGE OF WINDS, WHICH MAY PROMPT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ONLY
TO DETERIORATE AGAIN ON THURSDAY, WHICH MAY PROMPT ADDITIONAL
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL OF OUR WATERS.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST MONDAY
FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354-374.
CPM/ST
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