065
FXUS62 KCHS 231351
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
851 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. KEY MESSAGE 2 WAS UPDATED TO
TO HIGHLIGHT AND EXTENSION OF THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 2) GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ACROSS
LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
- 3) BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ENHANCES
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TONIGHT.
A MODIFIED ARCTIC AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING AS SPRAWLING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD
FROM SOUTH- CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50F (MORE THAN 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR FEB.) TODAY AS THIS ARCTIC AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION. ALSO, LINGERING
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL CLOSER TO THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW 40S, WHICH IS A BIG CHANGE COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE
DAYS. THE COLDEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S INLAND AND MID TO UPPER 20S
NEAR THE COASTLINE. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S, WITH A FEW UPPER TEENS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INLAND
COUNTIES. ADDITIONALLY, THE 01Z.NBM MINIMUM TEMPS. FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW MORNING INDICATE A IQR RANGE OF 1-2 DEGREES, REFLECTING
A TIGHTLY CLUSTERED DISTRIBUTION AND REINFORCING A HIGH DEGREE
OF CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. HENCE, A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL LIKELY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THE INLAND COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING, HOWEVER IT WILL BE MARGINAL FOR THE
COASTAL ZONES AS WIND VALUES BOTTOM NEAR 20F AGAIN. THE NEED FOR
AN ADVISORY WILL BE REASSESSED AGAIN TODAY. HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY, REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE THIS MORNING.
WINDS AT PNOS1 HAVE SLOWLY COME DOWN OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS,
BUT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE A BIT LATER THIS MORNING.
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 1 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 3: BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ENHANCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING.
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30
MPH ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 25-30%
THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS PAST
WEEKEND, THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS TODAY. THEREFORE, A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM 11AM UNTIL 7PM (AFTER SUNSET).
AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY. HOWEVER, GUSTY NORTHWEST/WEST WINDS (20-25 KT) WILL
CONTINUE AND/OR DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS EARLY MORNING AND
PERSIST DURING THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10 KT OR LESS
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: AN APPROACHING FRONT COULD BRING
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: WINDS WILL SLOWLY SETTLE DOWN AS THE DAY GOES
ON. WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW GALE-FORCE OVER THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, BUT WILL LIKELY PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS OVER THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED
TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND
CONTINUES FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH NO MARINE CONCERNS EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT EARLY WEEKEND, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
ACROSS A MAJORITY OF LOCAL WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD THEN RETURN DURING THE WEEKEND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
352-354.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page