324
FXUS62 KCHS 231733
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1233 PM EST MON FEB 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED. KEY MESSAGE 4 WAS ADDED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ENHANCES
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNSET.
- 2) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON.
- 3) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT.
- 4) A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: BREEZY WINDS WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ENHANCES FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH SUNSET.
SUSTAINED NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
25-30 MPH ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHIFTS FARTHER AWAY AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE TO USHER
IN A DRIER AIRMASS AND YIELD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN
25-30% THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THIS
PAST WEEKEND, THESE CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT CONTINUES
THROUGH UNTIL 7 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS CONTINUE TO SURGE ON LAKE MOULTRIE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO
LINGERING COLD AIR ADVECTION AND AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT.
WINDS AT PNOS1 ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LAKE AT PINOPOLIS IS
STILL SHOWING SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS
IN THE MID-UPPER 20S. THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL 5 PM.
KEY MESSAGE 3: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES
AGAIN TONIGHT.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL SOUTH INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST
OVERNIGHT. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE NOR'EASTER
DEPARTING TO THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF WIND IN
PLACE THROUGH THE NIGHT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THE GRADIENT MAY
RELAX JUST ENOUGH BEFORE DAYBREAK TO ALLOW FOR LEAST A PARTIAL
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER, BUT GUIDANCE IS CERTAINLY
STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL OCCUR. THE 23/13Z NBM IS
RUNNING AT THE VERY TOP END OR EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE WARMER
SIDE OF THE INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) OF THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE
AND WAS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER. A BLEND OF THE COLDER STATISTICAL AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE WAS PREFERRED FOR AND YIELDS LOWS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST; RANGING FROM THE MID 20S
INLAND TO THE THE LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW LOWER 20S ARE
POSSIBLE AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE SOME LOCALIZED, FULL
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING OCCURS. AS WINDS DIMINISH WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL MINIMUM, WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT 20-25 DEGREE RANGE OR JUST ABOVE COLD WEATHER
ADVISORY CRITERIA. A FEW SPOTS COULD BRIEFLY DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS JUST RIGHT AROUND DAYBREAK, BUT DURATIONS SHOULD BE
PRETTY BRIEF AND TRANSIENT. A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY WILL NOT BE
ISSUED FOR THIS REASON.
KEY MESSAGE 4: A FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. THURSDAY MORNING. TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP TO OUR
WEST THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH ITS AXIS STRETCHING ROUGHLY FROM THE
TN VALLEY SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE,
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FAR OFFSHORE THURSDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE,
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY, WITH AN
ATTACHED WARM FRONT LOCATED WELL TO OUR NORTH AND A COLD FRONT
WELL TO OUR WEST. THE LOW WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY, DRAGGING
THE COLD FRONT WITH IT. THIS WILL USHER DEEPER MOISTURE INTO
OUR REGION. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVERSPREADING OUR FAR INLAND COUNTIES THURSDAY MORNING, PERHAPS
REMAINING OVER THIS GENERAL AREA THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING, WITH WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD SHIFT CLOSER TO THE COAST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE DECREASING FURTHER INLAND. THERE ARE
SOME DIFFERENCES REGARDING HOW FAST OR SLOW THE SHOWERS CLEAR
OUT FROM OUR AREA, RANGING FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE REFINED. IT'S STILL TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS, BUT INITIAL
INDICATIONS ARE WE'RE NOT EXPECTED FLOODING RAINS, ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE ONGOING DROUGHT IN PLACE. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS
TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
23/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 24/18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE ACROSS
THE WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE EASES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED BY ABOUT 3-6 HOURS ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND NEARSHORE WATERS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.
THE GALE WARNING FOR THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS WAS ALSO
DOWNGRADED TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND IS IN EFFECT THROUGH
DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY: WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS MAINLY THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE AND BOTH SOUTH
CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A RE-
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AND THE FORMATION OF A LEE-SIDE
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPSTATE INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: A FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS MOST OUR OUR OCEAN ZONES. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT THROUGH THE WATERS ON FRIDAY, THEN OFFSHORE
FRIDAY NIGHT, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO TREND LOWER.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
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