552
FXUS62 KCHS 240624
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
124 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 FOR COLD WEATHER PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 2 FOR RAINFALL
CHANCES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED
FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR
EXTENDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TONIGHT AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
MID TO LATE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- 2) A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK, PLACING A SOMEWHAT ENHANCED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE SETUP WILL KEEP SOME DEGREE OF WIND
IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME
INDICATION THAT THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX JUST ENOUGH FOR THE BOUNDARY
LAYER TO PARTIALLY DECOUPLE NEAR DAYBREAK. THE ANTICIPATED TREND IN
SFC WINDS UNDER CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTS TEMPS DIPPING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S INLAND (LOWER 30S FOR COASTAL AREAS) NEAR DAYBREAK. AS
WINDS WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF COLDEST TEMPS, WIND CHILLS ARE
EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE, LOWEST INLAND. A
FEW SPOTS STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF DIPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
WELL INLAND, BUT THE DURATION/COVERAGE OF THE EVENT IS RATHER
BRIEF/SMALL. HAVE OPTED FOR NO COLD WEATHER ADVISORY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED SCENARIO LATE/AROUND DAYBREAK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ALOFT, EXPECT BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOISTURE LVLS TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT'S FAIRLY HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE
COASTLINE AS THIS TIMEFRAME RANGES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY, THEREFORE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE
FORECAST. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, HOWEVER FLOODING RAINS DOES NOT SEEM TO JUMP OUT AT THE
MOMENT (ESP. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: HIGH PRESSURE SPREADING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS LOCAL
WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING, AND SUPPORT NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO
AROUND 25 KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE
ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 5 AM AND ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS THROUGH 7 AM. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH DAYBREAK, GENERALLY
RANGING BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE BY DAYBREAK.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF, THEN GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, FAVORING WINDS AND
SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFYING
LATE NIGHT AS TROUGHING PASSES TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT
SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25 KT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF
DAYBREAK WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO 3-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS A PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LVLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A RE-TIGHTENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO, WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME 6 FOOTERS
REACHING INTO THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY WILL YIELD ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD
BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORN. AND SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
CLIMATE
RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES:
FEBRUARY 24:
KSAV: 25/1989
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
DENNIS/DPB
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