720
FXUS62 KCHS 241201
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 AM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 1 TO UPDATE ONGOING TEMPERATURES.
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
THE MARINE SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REMOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
THIS MORNING.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS
MORNING.
- 2) A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM
LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COLD WEATHER WITH SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS MORNING.
MODIFIED ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF
COAST, PLACING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AROUND DAYBREAK.
THE TREND SUPPORTS TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S INLAND (LOWER 30S
FOR COASTAL AREAS) WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE 20-25 DEGREE RANGE
EARLY THIS MORNING, LOWEST INLAND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
ALOFT, EXPECT BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN TRACK TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOISTURE LVLS TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. IT'S FAIRLY HIGH MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO THE REST OF THE REGION ON
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE
COASTLINE AS THIS TIMEFRAME RANGES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. SOME INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
FRIDAY, THEREFORE THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE
FORECAST. IT'S STILL TOO EARLY IN THE FORECAST TO DISCUSS RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, HOWEVER FLOODING RAINS DOES NOT SEEM TO JUMP OUT AT THE
MOMENT (ESP. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT). HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION
WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF, THEN GRADUALLY
SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT,
FAVORING WINDS AND SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INTENSIFYING LATE NIGHT AS TROUGHING PASSES TO
THE NORTH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO
20-25 KT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO
3-5 FT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED ACROSS
A PORTION OF LOCAL WATERS HEADING INTO DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LVLS ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO A RE-TIGHTENING
OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO, WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME 6 FOOTERS
REACHING INTO THE NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY WILL YIELD ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD
BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORN. AND SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DENNIS/DPB
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