098
FXUS62 KCHS 242319
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH
SANTEE RIVER, SC TO EDISTO BEACH, SC OUT 20 NAUTICAL MILES.
ELSEWHERE, NO MAJOR CHANGES COMING DOWN THE TRACK THIS FORECAST
CYCLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
TROUGH GRADUALLY DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID- AND DEEP-SOUTH
THURSDAY, MOVING EASTWARD TOWARDS THE COASTAL EMPIRE AND
LOWCOUNTRY BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL HELP PUSH A SURFACE COLD
FRONT INTO THE AREA, PROVIDING SUFFICIENT LIFT FOR RAIN. RICH
SOUTHERLY FLOW STARTS DEVELOPING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY EVENING,
PUMPING MORE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. SPOTTY SHOWERS START
DEVELOPING INLAND BY THURSDAY MORNING WHERE SOME BETTER FORCING
PERSISTS IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY IN THE
UPPER LEVELS DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT, WHERE THE
RADAR WILL REALLY START TO FILL IN WITH RAIN. THIS CONTINUES
WELL INTO FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE IS STILL SHAKY AS TO WHEN THE RAIN
TAPERS OFF. AS THE FRONT SLOWS DOWN, COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PERSIST
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE, WHICH
PROTECT THE AREA FROM ANY FLOODING ISSUES. COULD SEE SOME
BENEFICIAL RAIN HERE, WITH AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
0Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHWEST WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 KTS. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN A TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KTS BY 15Z AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
EAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT, FAVORING
WINDS AND SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. THERE ARE SOME HINTS OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTENSIFYING LATE NIGHT AS TROUGHING PASSES TO THE
NORTH, WHICH COULD SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20-25
KT WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF DAYBREAK WHILE SEAS BUILD UP TO 3-5 FT.
WEDNESDAY: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT STARTING AT 7 AM
EST FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER, SC TO
EDISTO BEACH, SC OUT 20 NM. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN
RESPONSE TO A RE-TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. ALSO,
WITH SOME SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL BUILDING INTO THE WATERS,
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SOME 6 FOOTERS REACHING INTO THE
NEARSHORE CHARLESTON WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
WEDNESDAY AS WELL. THE SIGNATURES ARE JUST NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO
WARRANT AN ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST ON
THURSDAY WILL YIELD ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOCAL WATERS AND CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY WARRANT THE NEED FOR
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL SHOULD BUILD INTO THE LOCAL WATERS AGAIN ON
THURSDAY MORNING AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 6 FT THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. EXPECT THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND MARINE CONDITIONS SUBSIDE.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR AMZ350.
NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page