087
FXUS62 KCHS 250931
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
431 AM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENT MADE TO MARINE DISCUSSION TO START SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ALOFT, EXPECT BROAD MID-LVL TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MID-
SOUTH ON THURSDAY, AND THEN SHIFT TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH ON THURSDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT. EXPECT MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION ON THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DEVELOP IN THE FAR INLAND COUNTIES ON THURSDAY MORNING AND REMAIN IN
THAT GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE EVENING, BEFORE OVERSPREADING INTO THE
REST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. SOME WEAK (MLCAPE
< 500 J/KG) INSTABILITY COULD BE PRESENT IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AHEAD
OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY NIGHT, THEREFORE THE MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE FORECAST. THERE REMAINS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY OF HOW QUICKLY THE RAINFALL SHOULD CLEAR OFF THE
COASTLINE AS THIS TIMEFRAME RANGES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE COURSE OF 48 HOURS (THURS. MORNING INTO SAT. MORN). AT THE
MOMENT, FLOODING APPEARS NOT BE A CONCERN ESP. WITH THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WITH TEMPS. RANGING FROM UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, A BRIEF EPISODE OF MVFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE AT THE
JZI TERMINAL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK DUE TO LOW CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME GUSTY AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 15Z
WEDNESDAY (18-23 KT) AND PERSIST INTO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THURSDAY. A FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MARINE
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK: HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC,
FAVORING WINDS AND SEAS THAT REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS. THERE ARE HINTS OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INTENSIFYING LATE AS TROUGHING PASSES TO THE NORTH,
WHICH HAS BEEN OBSERVED WITH 20-25 KT WIND GUSTS RECENTLY ACROSS
NEARSHORE SC WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. GIVEN THE
TREND, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT
ENHANCED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND A TROUGH PASSING TO THE NORTH. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
SOME MIXING INTO LOW-LVL WIND FIELDS (1000MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS
AROUND 30 KT), SUPPORTING A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NEARSHORE SC
WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
NIGHT (GUSTS AROUND 25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT ANTICIPATED). THERE ARE
HINTS OF SOME WIND GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
NEARSHORE WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS LATE DAY AND TONIGHT,
BUT A WARM-AIR ADVECTION SETUP SUGGESTS COVERAGE AND DURATION TO
REMAIN MARGINAL. GIVEN THE SETUP, HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THESE WATERS
HEADLINE FREE, BUT SHOULD TRENDS/GUIDANCE SUGGEST HIGHER WINDS
TONIGHT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THESE
WATERS AS WELL.
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST LATE WEEK, YIELDING ELEVATED WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. CONDITIONS SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION
OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS NEARSHORE SC WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY (GUSTS AROUND
25 KT AND SEAS 4-6 FT), WHILE SOUTHERN NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND
OUTER GA WATERS INDICATE A SOLID 15- 20 KT WIND WITH PERHAPS
SOME GUSTS PEAKING UP TO 25 KT. AGAIN, CONDITIONS APPEAR MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE WATERS SO HAVE
OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON AN ISSUANCE CURRENTLY, BUT IF TRENDS INDICATE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE
COLD FRONT IS THEN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
DENNIS/DPB
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