615
FXUS62 KCHS 251740
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 PM EST WED FEB 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF RISEN SLIGHTLY FOR KEY MESSAGE 1, WITH
A SECOND KEY MESSAGE INTRODUCED FOR THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR
LAKE MOULTRIE. THE MARINE DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE ONGOING AND EXPANDED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FROM LATE
THURSDAY LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- 2) STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL CREATE
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: A PASSING FRONT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FROM LATE THURSDAY LINGERING INTO SATURDAY.
A SLOW MOVING AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST REGION OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, WITH A COLD
FRONT SIMILARLY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO TN/NC. AS WEAK
SHORTWAVES WORK THEIR WAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT, AND WILL
LEAD TO INCREASING CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON THURSDAY. INITIALLY, MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ON DURING
THE MORNING HOURS, WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN EXPANDING TO INCLUDE
THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT/LOW SAG SOUTHWARDS.
MAJORITY OF THE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE MAIN SHORTWAVE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMBING
INTO THE 1-1.25" RANGE. MODELS HAVE COME IN A TOUCH WETTER, WITH
STORM TOTAL RAINFALL NOW LOOKING TO BE IN THE 1-1.5" RANGE.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT FLOODING DOENS'T LOOK TO BE
A THREAT, WITH THE HIGH RES MODELS THAT GO OUT FAR ENOUGH
SHOWING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH QUICK
UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT, FURTHER MADE LESS LIKELY BY THE ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR RAIN DWINDLE INTO SATURDAY,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AS MODEL AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
VARIOUS ENSEMBLES ON THE END TIMING OF THE RAIN IS LOW.
KEY MESSAGE 2) STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ON LAKE MOULTRIE WILL
CREATE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR SMALL CRAFT ON THURSDAY.
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY OVERNIGHT, RESULTING IN BREEZY WINDS
DEVELOPING INTO THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, UNDER A STRENGTHENING
LOW-LEVEL JET, 50 KNOT WINDS IN THE 850HPA LAYER WILL MIX DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS, WITH THE COMBINATION CREATING
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON LAKE MOULTRIE.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. AS NOTED PREVIOUSLY, EXPECT
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER
GRADUALLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. WHILE GUSTS MAY WANE A BIT
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, SHOULD SEE A RESURGENCE OCCUR NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY. WILL THEN SEE GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 KT PERSIST FOR
THE REMINDER OF THE PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE LIKELY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A FRONT DIVES ACROSS THE REGION.
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, THOUGH
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY BE TRENDING TOWARD VFR.
MARINE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THE STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE THE BREEZY WINDS OVER THE WATERS FROM SOUTH
SANTEE TO EDISTO THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION, AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS, BREEZY
WINDS EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR WATERS, INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR. HAVE THEREFORE EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GIVEN THE
EXPECTED WIDESPREAD 25+ KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH 6 FOOT SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 20+NM OUT. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THERE IS A
~40% PROBABILITY FOR SEEING GALE STRENGTH WINDS STARTING NEAR
DAYBREAK AND ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON, WHICH IS NOTED IN THE HRRR AND
RAP, BUT LOOKS TO REMAIN CONFINED TO A NARROW CORRIDOR ROUGHLY
20NM OUT TO SEE IN THE WATERS FROM SOUTH SANTEE TO EDISTO, BUT
THAT IS A TREND WORTH MONITORING.
IN ADDITION TO THE BREEZY WINDS, WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
THURSDAY MORNING, WITH ADDITIONAL AND HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNING DURING THE WEEKEND, KEEPING CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 5 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ352.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.
APT/SST
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