442
FXUS62 KCHS 042336
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
636 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DENSE FOG IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SUPPORTIVE TONIGHT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DENSE FOG ACROSS MUCH OR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GA AND SOUTHEAST
SC. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF MARINE FOG ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS WHICH MEANS IT COULD TAKE A BIT LONGER FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT TO TAKE PLACE TONIGHT COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT.
OVERALL, MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE IN SUGGESTING
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
THURSDAY AND THEN MIXING OUT AND DISSIPATING BY MID MORNING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED AS THE FOG EVOLVES.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND.
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WEST OF STRONG H5 RIDGE FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IN FACT, NAEFS INDICATES THAT MID-
LEVEL RIDGE WILL GENERALLY REMAIN TWO UNITS OF STANDARD ANOMALY
THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SFC, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH STEADY ESE WINDS,
SUPPORTING MILD LLVL THICKNESSES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL PEAK IN THE UPPER
70S TO MID 80S ACROSS SE GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY. SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGHS WILL FAVOR VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID
80S, WITH UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS SE GA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
GENERALLY, DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS, WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS, EXPECTED FROM SATURDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN ESE WINDS AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES,
CONVECTION MAY INITIATE OR FOCUS ALONG AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA
BREEZES. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE DENSE FOG AND
LOW STRATUS. OVERALL, WE ANTICIPATE THAT FOG AND STRATUS WILL
DEVELOP A BIT LATER THAN IT DID LAST NIGHT. SO THE TIMING OF IFR
CONDITIONS INTO THE TAF SITES IS AROUND 09-10Z. WE HAVE
INTRODUCED TEMPO GROUPS FOR DENSE FOG TO COVER THE 10-13Z TIME
PERIOD. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND MID MORNING
AND REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE REST OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEEK DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS LOCAL WATERS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS, WITH SFC WINDS BECOMING MORE
ONSHORE AROUND 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE NEARSHORE TO 4-5 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS. THE
MAIN ISSUE SHOULD ARRIVE DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHEN THE RISK
FOR SEA FOG RETURNS AS UPPER 50/LOWER 60 DEWPTS RESULT ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS WHILE 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS ARE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SFC WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE NIGHT.
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED OVER A PORTION
OF LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR A ESE DIRECTION THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH SPEEDS 10 KTS OR LESS. WINDS MAY SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH BY SUNDAY. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE BE A RECURRING CONCERN THIS WEEK AS WARM,
MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. PERIODS OF FOG
MAY REDEVELOP FREQUENTLY AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES, REDUCING VISIBILITY FOR
MARINERS. ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED
IN THE COMING DAYS. WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD PROLONG THE SEA
FOG THREAT INTO THAT PERIOD.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
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