012
FXUS62 KCHS 051814
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE 18Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
AS THE REGION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE, THE CHANCE FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG SEEM LIKELY
AGAIN TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ACCORDING TO FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE, THE INVERSION WILL SETUP
THIS EVENING (6-7PM) AND PERSIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE
DAYBREAK. THIS WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE NIGHTS,
LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH VERY
FAVORABLE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS WILL SET THE STAGE
ANOTHER NIGHT FOR AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG. THERE IS CHANCE THAT
THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES AS HREF PROBS. INDICATING
60-80% CHANCE OF VSBYS REDUCED TO 1/4 MILE (MEANING DENSE FOG)
ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE AND LESS OF A CHANCE (30-50%)
FURTHER INLAND. THEREFORE, SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS AND/OR
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14Z (9AM), THE FOG
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MID-MORNING.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG WITH MID-
LVL RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A WARM
SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER AMPLE SUN EACH DAY AHEAD OF A FRONT
STALLING/DISSIPATING JUST INLAND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
ARRIVING WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE INDICATES 1000-850MB
THICKNESS LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S
(COASTAL AREAS) TO LOW-MID 80S INLAND EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WARMEST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-LVL RIDGE IS DIRECTLY
OVER THE REGION. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL, GENERALLY
IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND
LOWS) ARE ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
DESPITE THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, NO RECORDS ARE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME, BUT SHOULD COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF A RECORD HIGH AT
SAVANNAH, GA (SAV) ON SUNDAY (CURRENT RECORD 86 DEGREES). HEADING
INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE MID 70S
TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, WHILE LOWS BECOME NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY
NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG
COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
05/18Z TAF: AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV
THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TONIGHT. RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 06Z, AND THEN
DETERIORATING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS AROUND 08-09Z FRIDAY AS LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG FILTERS INTO THE REGION. A TEMPO GROUP WAS ADDED
INTO THE TAF FOR 08Z AT KJZI AND 09Z AT KCHS/KSAV FOR LIFR
CONDITIONS. AFTER THE INVERSION BREAKS AROUND 14Z (9AM), CONDITIONS
SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY RETURN
THEREAFTER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
MARINE
TODAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS
LOCAL WATERS, EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT.
EXPECT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-10 KT TO PREVAIL AND MARINE
CONDITIONS TO REMAIN TRANQUIL. THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEA FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW (FRIDAY) MORNING AS CONDITIONS LOOK
VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HREF PROBS INDICATE A 60-80% OF FOG
DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z AND PERSISTING THROUGH POSSIBLY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT
FOR ALL THE NEARSHORE WATERS (INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR).
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO, MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
REOCCURRING THEME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WARM, MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. LIKE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THE
FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES, REDUCING VISIBILITY FOR
MARINERS. THUS, ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD BE
NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
DENNIS/DPB
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