541
FXUS62 KCHS 052326
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED TO FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS ONCE AGAIN FOG AND LOW STRATUS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS QUICKLY DISSIPATING WITH
THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL LEAVE BEHIND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WE HEAD
INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE QUITE WARM
WITH MANY AREAS RISING INTO THE LOW 80S. DEW POINTS MIXED OUT
INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S, AND WE SHOULD REACH THOSE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES WITH TONIGHT'S LOWS. HOWEVER, WE ONLY
ANTICIPATE OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR MOST OF
THE AREA, AND WE WILL LIKELY HANG ON TO SLIGHTLY MORE LOW-LEVEL
ONSHORE FLOW. SO CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY STILL SUPPORTIVE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT, BUT PERHAPS A BIT LESS THAN THE LAST FEW
NIGHTS. WE STILL EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST AREAS OF DENSE FOG FOR
A FEW HOURS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS TOUGH TO TRUST GOING FORWARD GIVEN THAT MUCH OF IT WOULD
SUGGEST THAT THERE IS ALREADY WIDESPREAD FOG ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS. IT AGAIN APPEARS LIKELY THAT WE WILL
NEED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS OR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES TO
ADDRESS THE FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ALONG
WITH MID-LVL RIDGING ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
FAVORING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER AMPLE SUN EACH DAY AHEAD OF
A FRONT STALLING/DISSIPATING JUST INLAND MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT ARRIVING WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THE BULK OF
GUIDANCE INDICATES 1000-850MB THICKNESS LEVELS SUPPORTIVE OF
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (COASTAL AREAS) TO LOW-MID 80S
INLAND EACH DAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WARMEST SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WHEN THE MID-LVL RIDGE IS DIRECTLY OVER THE REGION.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES (BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS) ARE
ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. DESPITE
THESE WARM TEMPERATURES, NO RECORDS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME,
BUT SHOULD COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF A RECORD HIGH AT
SAVANNAH, GA (SAV) ON SUNDAY (CURRENT RECORD 86 DEGREES).
HEADING INTO THE LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/NON- SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY SHOULD LIMIT HIGHS
TO THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES, WHILE LOWS BECOME
NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY NIGHT, GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND TO LOWER 50S ALONG COASTAL AREAS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. FOG AND LOW STRATUS IS AGAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND IMPACT
THE TERMINALS AROUND 08-09Z, WITH A PERIOD OF DENSE FOG POSSIBLE
BETWEEN 09-13Z. THE FOG SHOULD AGAIN MIX OUT AND LIFT BY AROUND
13-14Z AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES. ONCE THE FOG DISSIPATES,
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
MARINE
TONIGHT: RATHER BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS AND SEAS
2-4 FEET. THE MAIN CONCERN IS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATER
THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH ONSHORE FLOW, THE
NEARSHORE WATERS CLOSER TO THE COAST ARE DEFINITELY THE MAIN
AREA OF CONCERN. DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WE COULD
EVENTUALLY NEED DENSE FOG ADVISORIES FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
INCLUDING CHARLESTON HARBOR.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING IN AN EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND PERSIST
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
UNDER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) CRITERIA. HOWEVER, SEA FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A REOCCURRING THEME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
WARM, MOIST AIR MOVES OVER COOLER SHELF WATERS. LIKE THE
PREVIOUS NIGHTS, THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES, REDUCING
VISIBILITY FOR MARINERS. THUS, ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page