547
FXUS62 KCHS 061127
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
627 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT
THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE LATER HALF
OF THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS MORNING.
GIVEN THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OBSERVED ON THURSDAY, FOG IS
ONCE AGAIN A THREAT ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS FROM THE HRRR ARE VERY
SUPPORTIVE OF FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY AND
SOUTHEASTERN GA. OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW SOLID SUPPORT
FOR FOG, HOWEVER THIS IS TAKEN WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. IT APPEARS
THAT A LOT OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING WELL, WITH
ALMOST ALL GUIDANCE SHOWING THAT THERE SHOULD BE ONGOING DENSE
FOG, WHICH THERE IS NOT. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT OR DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED AT SOME POINT FOR SOME LOCATIONS.
WHILE FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM, THE ONSET TIMING AND INTENSITY
IS A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. THE FOG THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL LIKELY MIX OUT VERY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENSEMBLE
SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLES SHOW THAT GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AT
VARIOUS LEVELS PEAK AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT CLIMATOLOGY
OVER THE COMING DAYS, LEADING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. DESPITE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE, PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPRESS MAJORITY OF
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE EXCEPTION IS FOR AREAS WELL
WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AS HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTION ALLOWING
MODELS (CAMS) DO SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON THE EDGE OF THE RIDGE AXIS BOTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN SUNDAY, AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN
CHANCES WILL EXPAND EASTWARDS TO INCLUDE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA, PARTLY DUE TO A DIURNALLY FORMED SEA-BREEZE. A SERIES OF WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL WAVE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY, WHICH COULD PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE. NO
SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LINGER INTO THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THE LATEST FORECAST TIES RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAINING SHY OF DAILY
RECORDS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
IFR/LIFR WILL INITIALIZE AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV AS FOG IMPACTS THE
TERMINALS. FOG IS EXPECTED TO MIX OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE,
WITH VFR RETURNING AROUND 13Z. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A THREAT OF FOG
DEVELOPING AGAIN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HOWEVER
RESTRICTIONS WILL LIKELY BE JUST OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, LEADING TO CHANCES
FOR TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT SEA FOG IS STARTING TO DEVELOP OFF
OF THE COASTLINE AS OF 1:30AM. GIVEN THE STRONG GUIDANCE SUPPORT
FOR THE CONTINUING DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA FOG A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH 10AM.
THE ADVISORY DOES NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR,
ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE IT WILL NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE HARBOR LATER TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO
THE WEEKEND, CONTINUING EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON SATURDAY.
WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH MAY BEGIN TO EXHIBIT DIURNALLY DRIVEN
FLUCTUATIONS. BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.
SEA FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BE A RECURRING CONCERN AS WARM, MOIST AIR
MOVES OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS. PERIODS OF FOG MAY REDEVELOP
FREQUENTLY AND COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, REMAINING POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES, REDUCING
VISIBILITY FOR MARINERS. ADDITIONAL MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
COULD BE NEEDED.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
APT/CPM
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