169
FXUS62 KCHS 061823
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT FOG CHANCES TONIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGE 2 HAVE BEEN MADE TO REFLECT THE ONGOING
WARM WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE AVIATION
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE
SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR DENSE FOG TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
OBSERVATIONS ACROSS SE GA AND THE SC LOWCOUNTRY INDICATE THE
DEWPOINTS RANGED IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. AS
TEMPERATURES WARM IN THE LOW TO MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON, A SEA BREEZE
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ADVANCE
INLAND THIS EVENING, MAINTAINING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
THE SURFACE RIDGE ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM
OVERNIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL EXTEND UP 1000 MB. MOISTURE
BELOW THE INVERSION WILL LIKELY FORM A LAYER OF STRATUS, THEN BUILD
DOWN TO THE SFC LATE TONIGHT. FOG WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
DAYBREAK SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES COOL IN THE LOW 60S. HREF
INDICATES PROBABILITIES OF LESS THAN A .5 MILE RANGE FROM 60% ALONG
THE COAST TO 40% INLAND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SC LOWCOUNTRY. DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED LATER FOR AT LEAST A PORTIONS OF SE GA
AND SC LOWCOUNTRY, ALONG WITH THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY.
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER AMPLE
SUNSHINE EACH DAY AHEAD OF A STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT UPSTREAM
MONDAY, THEN AHEAD OF A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO THE
LOCAL AREA DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO DISPLAY 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (COASTAL AREAS) TO LOW-MID 80S
(INLAND) THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND/OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM HEATING.
GREATER WARMTH IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
MID-LVL RIDGING EXPANDS/STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 80S
(INLAND) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL,
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE TEMPERATURES COULD COME WITHIN A
FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS, PARTICULARLY AT SAVANNAH, GA (KSAV). CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY,
LIMITING HIGHS TO THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY
COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
PRIOR TO THE 18Z, VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SEA FOG ALONG THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE MARINE LAYER ACROSS THE
TERMINALS. IFR TO LIFR CEILINGS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND 5Z, LOWERING
THROUGH DAWN. DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND DAWN, HIGHLIGHTED WITH
TEMPOS FROM 9-12Z. FOG AND STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY
16Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DURING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD PRODUCE TEMPO
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.
MARINE
THIS AFTERNOON, VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT SEA FOG WILL EXPAND THIS EVENING, GIVE SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S
OVER WATERS IN THE 50S. THE MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY (DFA) FOR THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE EDISTO RIVER HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL
10 AM SATURDAY. DFAS MAY BE NEEDED FOR ADDITIONAL MARINE ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE
REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND, FAVORING A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2-4 FT, WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. SFC
WINDS COULD TIP MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HEADING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLING/DISSIPATING
FRONT WELL INLAND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
DPB/NED
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page