736
FXUS62 KCHS 062344
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS, CONDITIONS ARE QUITE SIMILAR
TO LAST NIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND COASTAL WEB CAMS INDICATE
THAT THERE IS SOME PATCHY AND VERY SHALLOW FOG BEING ADVECTED
INTO THE LOWER SC AND SOUTHEAST GA COAST THIS EVENING. THE TYBEE
ISLAND WEB CAM SHOWS A FOG LAYER ABOUT 50 FT DEEP FROM THE
SURFACE. SO, THERE IS PATCHY FOG OUT THERE AND WE SHOULD SEE IT
EXPAND LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WITH PREVAILING NEAR
SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE SOUTH, ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS WILL ADVECT INLAND. FOG WILL LIKELY
PERSIST THROUGH 8-10 AM AND DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, PRIOR TO A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY.
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE EACH DAY AHEAD OF A
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT UPSTREAM MONDAY, THEN AHEAD OF A MORE
SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT ARRIVING TO THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE BULK OF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
DISPLAY 1000-850MB THICKNESSES SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 70S (COASTAL AREAS) TO LOW-MID 80S
(INLAND) THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND/OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD LIMIT MAXIMUM
HEATING. GREATER WARMTH IS POSSIBLE HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS MID-LVL RIDGING EXPANDS/STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES IN ADVANCE OF A SFC COLD FRONT ARRIVING
THURSDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE OF AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS
IN THE MID-UPPER 80S (INLAND) TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS AS WELL, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THESE
TEMPERATURES COULD COME WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF RECORDS,
PARTICULARLY AT SAVANNAH, GA (KSAV). CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE WITH FROPA ON THURSDAY, LIMITING HIGHS TO
THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S, FOLLOWED BY NOTICEABLY COOLER
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S THURSDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. VERY SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT, THE PRIMARY FORECAST ISSUE
WILL BE FOG AND LOW STRATUS. THE SETUP IS QUITE SIMILAR AND WE
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS BEGINNING AROUND 07-09Z
AND CONTINUING THROUGH 13-14Z. ONCE ANY FOG AND STRATUS MIXES
OUT BY MID MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST
OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS DUE TO FOG AND/OR LOW STRATUS DURING LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS DURING THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WHICH COULD PRODUCE
TEMPO FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS DURING
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: VISIBLE SATELLITE INDICATED SEA FOG ALONG THE COAST,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SEA FOG WILL EXPAND THIS EVENING, GIVE SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S OVER WATERS IN THE 50S. THE MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS SOUTH OF THE
EDISTO RIVER THROUGH 10 AM SATURDAY. THIS DENSE FOG ADVISORY
COULD NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO OTHER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS
LATER THIS EVENING OR TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PROVIDE THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND 3-4 FT SEAS.
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS WEEKEND,
FAVORING A SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2-4 FT, WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SFC WINDS COULD TIP MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST HEADING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT WELL INLAND.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
BSH
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