028
FXUS62 KCHS 071852
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
152 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED, INCLUDING MENTION OF DENSE FOG
ACROSS COASTAL WATERS, THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE, AND A NEW KEY
MESSAGE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- 3) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE A FRONT
APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, CONTINUING A SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. LIKE PREVIOUS NIGHTS, INCREASING
MOISTURE LEVELS UNDER RIDGING ALOFT COULD HELP SET THE STAGE FOR FOG
TO DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT WHEN CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE QUITE FAVORABLE. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SOME MIXED
SIGNALS IN REGARDS TO FOG COVERAGE, INCLUDING DENSE FOG POTENTIAL
GIVEN 1000 MB GEOSTROPHIC WINDS APPEAR SLIGHTLY STRONGER ACROSS THE
AREA COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS. IT IS POSSIBLE MOST CLOUD
FORMATION STAYS IN THE FORM OF A LOW STRATUS DECK AT LEAST A FEW
HUNDRED FEET OFF THE GROUND, LEAVING SFC VISIBILITIES ABOVE 1 MILE
THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-16, MAINTAIN THE GREATEST RISK
FOR AREAS OF DENSE FOG LATE NIGHT THROUGH A FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK
(HREF PROBABILITIES OF 1/4 MILE VSBYS BETWEEN 20-30%). THE RISK
COULD BE MOST ENHANCED ALONG COASTAL GA SHOULD SEA FOG DRIFT ONSHORE
OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. A STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE UPSTREAM MONDAY,
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTER ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKEWISE, THE NBM GENERALLY HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK MOVING, LEADING TO LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80
DEGREES TO THE UPPER 80S, EXCEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE
COAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA
WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES MAKING A RUN FOR
THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON ITS EASTWARD
SPEED AND LOCATION, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THE TROUGH QUICKLY
MOVING OVER THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE DAY, THEN OFF THE COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE THE ENERGY WILL BE TRANSFERRED
TO A COLD FRONT, WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THOUGH, IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THEY
WILL BE. LIKEWISE, IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT
ANY SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 00Z SUNDAY. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
RETURNING AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LOW
STRATUS OVERNIGHT AND PERHAPS FOG LATE NIGHT. CONDITIONS DETERIORATE
TO MVFR AT JZI BY AROUND 03Z SUNDAY, THEN IFR AND/OR POSSIBLY LOWER
AT JZI AROUND 05Z SUNDAY. IFR AND/OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDITIONS OCCUR
AT CHS/SAV TERMINALS AS WELL, GENERALLY BY 08Z SUNDAY (BUT COULD BE
A FEW HOURS PRIOR). IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH ABOUT
14Z SUNDAY. LIKE PREVIOUS MORNINGS, ANY LOW CLOUDS (OR FOG) LIKELY
LIFTS/ERODES QUICKLY AROUND 14-15Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BRING RESTRICTIVE
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT
SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF SEA
FOG ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND POTENTIALLY
OVERNIGHT. LATEST WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE SAT IMAGERY INDICATE SEA FOG
JUST OFF LOCAL BEACHES ACROSS COASTAL WATERS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED SUFFICIENTLY ACROSS NEARSHORE SC WATERS,
BUT WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS REMAINING (VSBYS 1-3 NM). HOWEVER, AREAS
SOUTH OF TYBEE ISLAND, GA ACROSS NEARSHORE GA WATERS CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN EXTENDING A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY ACROSS NEARSHORE GA WATERS INTO EARLY EVENING.
GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG (SOME DENSE)
RETURNING ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT, AND TO A LESSOR DEGREE
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LESS FOR
ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-LVL FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ACROSS THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY
DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
TIGHTENS. THE RISK FOR SEA FOG SHOULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2-4 FT, WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO
INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR OCEAN
ZONES. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
ON THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 7:
KCHS: 87/2023
KCXM: 84/2023
KSAV: 86/2023
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 86/1974
KCXM: 86/1951
KSAV: 86/1974
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 7:
KCHS: 63/1992
KCXM: 65/2023
KSAV: 68/1880
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/1880
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ354.
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