285
FXUS62 KCHS 072330
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
630 PM EST SAT MAR 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- 3) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTIVE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
AND LOW STRATUS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH NOT QUITE AS CONDUCIVE AS THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT TIGHTER
TONIGHT, SUPPORTING STRONGER AND MORE PERSISTENT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW-LEVELS. THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE
COVERAGE OF FOG COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THE MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE COASTAL
WATERS WHICH THEN ADVECTS INLAND ALONG THE COAST. WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL BE MORE IN THE 190-210 DEGREE RANGE, WHICH WILL
PREVENT TOO MUCH INLAND MOVEMENT, AND MORE BROADLY FAVOR THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES COULD AGAIN BE NEEDED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
DEEP-LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE
UPSTREAM MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTER
ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL USHER MOISTURE
INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LIKEWISE, THE
NBM GENERALLY HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY QUICK
MOVING, LEADING TO LOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED.
THE MAIN STORY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80
DEGREES TO THE UPPER 80S, EXCEPT COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR
THE COAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE
AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES MAKING A
RUN FOR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH AXIS ROUGHLY OVER THE
MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS VARY ON ITS
EASTWARD SPEED AND LOCATION, BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS HAS THE
TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING OVER THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE DAY, THEN
OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS MATTERS BECAUSE THE ENERGY
WILL BE TRANSFERRED TO A COLD FRONT, WHICH APPEARS TO MOVE
THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA. GIVEN
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
THOUGH, IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE HOW STRONG THEY WILL BE.
LIKEWISE, IT'S TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE RAINFALL AMOUNTS. BUT ANY
SHOWERS/STORMS APPEAR TO BE PROGRESSIVE IN SPEED.
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING DRIER CONDITIONS
ALONG WITH A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL AGAIN BE FOG AND LOW
STRATUS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT DIFFERENT TONIGHT,
MAINLY DUE TO WINDS BEING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AND
STRONGER. THIS SHOULD FAVOR MORE STRATUS THAN FOG OVERALL. KCHS
AND KSAV SHOULD STILL SEE A PERIOD OF IFR STRATUS, BUT KJZI IS
TRICKIER WITH ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE COAST AND ANY MARINE
FOG THAT DEVELOPS. KJZI COULD SEE LOWER VISIBILITIES AND PERHAPS
EVEN SOME DENSE FOG. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS STILL
09-13Z, WITH QUICK IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 14Z AND ONWARD.
THEN IN THE AFTERNOON, THERE IS GOOD SUPPORT FROM HI-RES MODELS
FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY BE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND COULD BE CLOSE TO
ALL 3 TAF SITES. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD NEED TO BE EXPLICITLY
MENTIONED IN THE TAF'S WITH FUTURE ISSUANCES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BRING
RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT
WEEK. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF SEA FOG
ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. LATEST WEBCAMS AND VISIBLE
SAT IMAGERY INDICATE FOG HAS DISSIPATED AND WE HAVE CANCELLED
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE NEARSHORE GA WATERS. GUIDANCE
DOES SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SEA FOG (SOME DENSE) RETURNING
ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT, AND TO A LESSOR DEGREE
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT LESS
FOR ALL NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT GIVEN SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-
LVL FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED FOR DENSE FOG ADVISORIES ACROSS THESE WATERS OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, FAIRLY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AS
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS.
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2-4 FT, WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS
TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR
OCEAN ZONES. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE CANNOT BE RULED OUT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 86/1974
KCXM: 86/1951
KSAV: 86/1974
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/1880
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
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