476
FXUS62 KCHS 081055
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 AM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MARINE AND AVIATION SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH RAIN CHANCES
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- 3) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY IN
ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING WITH THE
CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE STILL CENTERED WELL
OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. SOUTHERLY BREEZES ARE A
BIT STRONGER THAN LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME WITH THE GRADIENT
BEGINNING TO TIGHTEN BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY EXPAND WITH TIME, BUT THE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD LIMIT ITS BUILD-DOWN POTENTIAL.
SOME DEGREE OF SEA FOG WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES
THROUGH SUNRISE, BUT IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD OR
IMPACTFUL ANY SEA FOG WILL BE GIVEN THE VARIOUS GLOBAL AND
NEAR-TERM, HIGH-RES MODELS ARE NOT INITIALIZING THE FOG/STRATUS
SITUATION WELL. WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER WITH
TIME, THE RISK FOR DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 MILE OR LESS
SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BEACHES AND BARRIER
ISLANDS, POSSIBLY REACHING AS FAR INLAND AS THE US-17 CORRIDOR
IN SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA, INCLUDING PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
METRO AREA. WHILE IT IS STILL POSSIBLE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR SOME AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK, THE EXTENT
OF THE DENSE FOG SHOULD NOT BE NEARLY WAS IT WAS SATURDAY
MORNING.
A DAMPENING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL HELP
DRIVE A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY. THE
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND EVENTUALLY STALL TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE SHEARS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE FRONTAL REMNANTS BECOME INCREASING
PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. STILL, SEVERAL BANDS OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
LATER TODAY (POSSIBLY INCLUDING SOME SEA BREEZE INDUCED
ACTIVITY), BEING SUPPORTED BY A LINGERING SECONDARY SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS/DEEP SOUTH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND FROM THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STREAK
EXITING THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. EXPECT A FEW TSTMS TO OCCUR
WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. 08/01Z NBM
POPS OF 40-60% LOOK REASONABLE AND WERE MAINTAINED. RAIN CHANCES
WILL GRADUALLY END FROM WEST-END OVERNIGHT.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS POISED TO
REACH INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. THE RECORD
HIGH OF 86 AT KSAV SET IN 1974 COULD BE CHALLENGED. IT WILL
REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HAS LED TO IMPRESSIVE GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS
PEAKING AT OR ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE WRT TO CLIMATOLOGY OVER
THE COMING DAYS, AS THE LATEST ENSEMBLE SITUATIONAL AWARENESS
TABLES CONTINUE TO SHOW, AND WILL CONTINUE OUR WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO THE NEW WORK-WEEK. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS, POSSIBLY INCLUDING AN
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES, FIRST MONDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD, LEADING
TO TEMPERATURES "ONLY" REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TAKES AIM AND MOVES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING WITH IT ANOTHER CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAINFALL. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON EITHER
DAY.
THE WARMEST/HOTTEST DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS PEAK AND CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE LOWEST,
WITH THE 1Z NBM HAVING A MAX TEMPERATURES GRID OF 90 DEGREES FOR
A SMALL PORTION OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. NBMV5 PROBABILITIES FOR
REACHING/EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ARE 40-50% ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA, WITH ADDITIONAL SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF EFI SHOWING
UNUSUALLY WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION. THE LATEST
FORECAST TIES THE RECORD WARM LOW TEMPERATURE AT SAVANNAH ON
TUESDAY, AND IS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF RECORD HIGHS AND RECORD WARM
LOWS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST ON
THURSDAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THE
TIMING OF THIS COLD FRONT REMAINS THE MAIN QUESTION, THOUGH THE
07.18Z MODEL SUITES HAVE BEEN NARROWING THE TIME WINDOW DOWN TO
EARLY TO LATE MORNING HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OUT AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BRING
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO THE REGION, THOUGH DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT
UNDER HALF AN INCH. SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF THE FRONT, WITH MODELS INDICATING THE
INSTABILITY IS WELL OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC BY
THE TIME THE FRONT ROLLS THROUGH.
BREEZY WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS
INCREASING BEHIND THE FRONT ON THURSDAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TAKES PLACE. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY LOOK TO HOLD ONTO AT LEAST NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEFORE THE COOLER AIR MOVES IN, WITH FRIDAY LOOKING
TO HAVE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S...STILL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WARM TEMPERATURES BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND AS
ZONAL FLOW SETS UP WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE POLAR JET.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
08/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: LOW STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT INTO A CUMULUS FIELD
BY 14Z WITH VFR CONIDITONS PREVAILING. RAIN CHANCES WILL
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, PEAKING THIS EVENING WITH THE RISK FOR
MVFR THRESHOLDS AT KCHS AND KJZI. TEMPO GROUPS WERE INCLUDED
02-05Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS, BUT SOME DEGREE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
COULD BE AS EARLY AS 22Z. FOR KSAV, THE RISK FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO HOLD NORTH OF THE TERMINAL, SO VCSH WAS MAINTAINED.
THE RISK FOR TSTMS IS THERE, BUT CONFIDENCE FOR TSTMS IMPACTING
KCHS AND KJZI IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE
RISK FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AT ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
EACH NIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY, LEADING TO
CHANCES FOR TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
GOES-E FOG PRODUCTS AND WEBCAMS OUT OF HILTON HEAD, TYBEE
ISLAND AND FOLLY BEACH SHOW AREAS OF SEA FOG HAVE EXPANDED OFF
THE UPPER GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS
MORNING. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 9 AM
FOR ALL NEARSHORE LEGS THROUGH 9 AM.
THROUGH TONIGHT: A RISK FOR SEA FOG PERSISTS, BUT IT REMAINS
UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD IT WILL BECOME PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. WEBCAMS
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED PATCHY SEA FOG MOVING ONSHORE AT TYBEE AT
TIMES, BUT THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS LESS THAN GREAT. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WERE HIGHLIGHTED FOR NOW, BUT A MARINE DENSE
FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AT ANY POINT. THE RISK FOR SOME
DEGREE OF SEA FOG WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LATER THIS MORNING AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT. THESE WILL LINGER INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE NEARSHORE AND AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS LOCAL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK, FAVORING A
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WIND IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE AND SEAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 2-4 FT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A STALLING/DISSIPATING
FRONT WELL INLAND. AS THAT FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARDS,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RISES AND MAY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, WITH RENEWED GUSTY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT
WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS TIME INTO
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE GUSTY WINDS, 6-8 FOOT SEAS BUILD INTO
THE REGION 10+NM OUT TO SEA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 86/1974
KCXM: 86/1951
KSAV: 86/1974
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/1880
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
354.
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