140
FXUS62 KCHS 081834
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
234 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 UPDATED FOR RISK OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE 2 AND 3. THE AVIATION DISCUSSION
HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE. THE MARINE
DISCUSSION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR SEA FOG RISK EARLY WEEK AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH
GUSTY WINDS.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- 3) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY IN
ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING. A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WINDS.
A DAMPENING H5 SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL
HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THIS
AFTERNOON. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN AND STALL TO THE
WEST AND NORTH LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT, ALLOWING CONVECTION TO OUTRUN
STRONGEST FORCING WHILE APPROACHING SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MID-LATE AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW
CONVECTION UPSTREAM, MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS CROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN IN A RATHER
WEAKENED STATE APPROACHING THE LOCAL AREA EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT
COULD SLOWLY SHOW SIGNS OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE TRAVERSING
THE LOCAL AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING GIVEN STRONGER INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH SFC TEMPS IN
THE LOW/MID 80S AND INCREASING MOISTURE SUPPLY WITHIN A
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AN AXIS OF SBCAPE AROUND 2000-3000 J/KG
ALONG WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE COULD
SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO CONVECTION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA NEAR
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A "MARGINAL RISK" DEPICTED ON THE DAY 1
SPC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK. MID-LVL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR, BUT
LOW-LVL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 7-8 C/KM AND MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WIND PROFILES SUGGEST A WIND THREAT WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.
A MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH DAMAGING WINDS, ESPECIALLY IF
ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA PRIOR TO THE BULK OF
CONVECTION UPSTREAM, BUT THE RISK FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DIMINISH WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS (INSTABILITY) BY MID EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGHS POISED TO REACH INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
THE RECORD HIGH OF 86 AT KSAV SET IN 1974 COULD BE CHALLENGED. IT
WILL REMAIN WARM OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER
60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD MONDAY. RIDGING
BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT WILL
BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL IN THIS LOCATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THIS PATTERN WILL USHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. NBM POPS SHOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCE LATE MONDAY, THEN
INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING, LEADING TO LOW
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 80S, EXCEPT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE
HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS OUR
INTERIOR GA COUNTIES MAKING A RUN FOR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. LOWS EACH
NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING OVER THE EAST
COAST EARLY THURSDAY, THEN OFFSHORE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR AREA, DURING THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON,
SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL
BE A DEEP PLUME OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MOISTURE AND LIFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
AREA. THOUGH, DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT UNDER 0.5". GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE (EARLY) TIMING OF THE FRONT.
ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND IT AND INCREASE
DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY, THEN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT CHS/JZI/SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS, BUT INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BRING TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS DURING THE 22Z
SUNDAY TO 04Z MONDAY TIMEFRAME. ONCE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY PUSHES OFFSHORE THIS EVENING, THE RISK FOR IFR CIGS
ARRIVES AT CHS/JZI, PRIMARILY AROUND 06-14Z MONDAY. MVFR CIGS
ARRIVE AT SAV DURING THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ALTHOUGH TEMPO IFR CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. VFR CONDITIONS ARRIVE AT ALL TERMINALS
MID-LATE MONDAY MORNING (14-15Z), THEN SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
18Z MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH
NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG. BRIEF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TODAY AND TONIGHT: LATEST WEBCAMS AND VIS SAT INDICATED PATCHY
DENSE FOG ACROSS LOCAL WATERS NEAR KIAWAH, IOP AND FOLLY BEACH,
SC. FOG COULD LINGER INTO LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING HOURS PRIOR TO
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHIFTING OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEARSHORE SC WATERS AS WELL. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4-5 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. EXPECT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND SEAS
2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY,
CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR OCEAN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS THROUGH OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER BEHIND
IT AND FURTHER INCREASE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 86/1974
KCXM: 86/1951
KSAV: 86/1974
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/1880
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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