620
FXUS62 KCHS 082347
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
747 PM EDT SUN MAR 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THUNDERSTORM RISK HAS ENDED FOR TODAY AND KEY MESSAGE 1 HAS
BEEN REMOVED. THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR THE 00Z
TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
- 2) A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON THURSDAY IN
ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALONG WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD MONDAY.
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TUESDAY, THEN SHIFTS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, A
STALLING/DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST ON MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE HIGH WILL
PREVAIL IN THIS LOCATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL
USHER MOISTURE INTO OUR AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
NBM POPS SHOULD BE SLIGHT CHANCE LATE MONDAY, THEN INCREASING TO
CHANCE POPS TUESDAY. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAST MOVING, LEADING TO LOW RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES TO THE UPPER 80S, EXCEPT
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG/NEAR THE COAST. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA WITH A FEW SPOTS ACROSS
OUR INTERIOR GA COUNTIES MAKING A RUN FOR THE 90 DEGREE MARK.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A COLD FRONT MAY BRING WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON
THURSDAY IN ADDITION TO BREEZY CONDITIONS.
THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONSIST OF A TROUGH QUICKLY MOVING OVER THE
EAST COAST EARLY THURSDAY, THEN OFFSHORE FROM THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD
FRONT, WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH OUR AREA,
DURING THE MORNING OR AFTERNOON, SHIFTING OFFSHORE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE WILL BE A DEEP PLUME OF
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE MOISTURE
AND LIFT MAY GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THOUGH, DUE TO THE FAST MOVEMENT, RAINFALL AMOUNTS LOOK TO
REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AT UNDER 0.5". GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS. BUT THE RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE (EARLY) TIMING OF
THE FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST BEHIND
IT AND INCREASE DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BUILDING STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE.
THE HIGH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON FRIDAY,
THEN WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. THERE COULD STILL BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH
KCHS AND KJZI THROUGH ABOUT 03Z, BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED. FOG AND STRATUS WILL BE A CONCERN AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
THE LOW CEILINGS LIKELY BEING THE MAIN DRIVER OF FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. THE MAIN TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS ROUGHLY FROM
08-13Z FOR IFR CONDITIONS AT ALL 3 TAF SITES. STRATUS AND ANY
FOG SHOULD LIFT BY AROUND 14Z AND VFR WILL RETURN. AS OF NOW,
LITTLE TO NO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH NIGHT AND MORNING THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO LOW STRATUS/FOG.
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 10-15 KT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NEARSHORE SC WATERS AS WELL. SEAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 2-4 FT
RANGE NEARSHORE AND UP TO 4-5 FT ACROSS OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. ANOTHER ROUND OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP, BUT THERE ARE CONCERNS THAT
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DISRUPT THE FOG ENVIRONMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DENSE FOG IS CONSIDERABLY LESS THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS.
EXTENDED MARINE: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER
FEATURE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK.
EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE AND
SEAS 2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR OCEAN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER
BEHIND IT AND FURTHER INCREASE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO IMPROVING
CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 8:
KCHS: 63/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/1880
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
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