677
FXUS62 KCHS 091135
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
AVIATION SECTION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH SEA FOG PLAGUING THE COASTAL WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
- 3) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY
THIS MORNING WITH SEA FOG PLAGUING THE COASTAL WATERS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
SATELLITE, WEBCAMS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF BERKELEY COUNTY.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INLAND BERKELEY AND
TIDAL BERKELEY THROUGH 10 AM. ACROSS DORCHESTER AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES, THE FOG IS A BIT MORE SPOTTY AND IS NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
STATIONARY AS IT BECOME PARALLEL TO THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL
KEEP THE ENTIRE REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR WITH WARM/MOIST
CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR
THE COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS
PREVAILING TODAY. STRATUS AND FOG ARE POISED TO STEADILY EXPAND
THROUGH DAYBREAK WITHIN A LIGHT WIND FIELD AND SATURATED
CONDITIONS. 1000 HPA CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE FORECAST
TO BE THE LOWEST ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST ARCING
BACK INTO COLLETON, DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. THIS IS
LIKELY WHERE THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF FOG WILL OCCUR, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BECOME DENSE. IT IS POSSIBLE VISIBILITIES 1/4
MILE OR LESS COULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH THAT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED CLOSER TO DAYBREAK, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS ONLY MEDIUM AT THIS TIME. SOME DEGREE OF SEA FOG
OFFSHORE COULD ALSO SPREAD INLAND ALONG PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES. TRENDS ARE CAREFULLY MONITORED.
THE FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD QUICKLY MIX OUT AFTER DAYBREAK WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S, BUT SHOULD
LARGELY PEAK BELOW RECORD TERRITORY DESPITE TEMPERATURES RUNNING
ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ITS INLAND
PROGRESSION WILL BE HAMPERED BY A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
STILL, A VERY LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE BEACHES LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID-UPPER 60S. IT WILL CONTINUE WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE LOWER 60S. MORE STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW
SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF SOME WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
BROAD RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY STAY CAPPED IN THE UPPER 70S. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA TAKING A SHOT AT 90 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR LOWS TO REMAIN MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN TANDEM OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AN INFLUX OF CAA
WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS
TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA.
NONETHELESS, WITH COVERAGE AND OVERALL MOISTURE LACKING, NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH POPS CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 60-80%.
WITH THE AID OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOULD SEE A DECENT
PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH THE TIMING OF FROPA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. RATHER, THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME OF THIS FRONT WILL
ENTAIL A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND BREEZY WINDS. WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 0.25 - 1.0 INCH, SHOULD SEE
OVERALL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, THOUGH DRAINAGE ISSUES MAY
STILL EXIST IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
09/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AT KCHS AND KJZI BY 14-15Z
WITH VFR PREVAILING THEREAFTER. RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL
FILTER BACK INTO ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, BUT THE RISK FOR IFR
OR LOWER CONDITIONS LOOK HIGHEST AT KJZI AND POSSIBLY KCHS. KSAV
SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RISK FOR SEA FOG WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
FOG WILL BECOME, WHICH HAS BEEN AN ONGOING ISSUE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF EXPANSION THROUGH DAYBREAK
WHICH MAY YIELD ENOUGH LOW VSBYS TO REQUIRE A MARINE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. FOG SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE DAY, ALTHOUGH ITS
COVERAGE COULD DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. MORE FOG
COULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS 10 KT OR
LESS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT LIKELY (10 KT
POSSIBLY 10-15 KT) ALONG THE BEACHES AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT
OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE AND SEAS 2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR OCEAN ZONES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO
VEER BEHIND IT AND FURTHER INCREASE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045-052.
MARINE...NONE.
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