275
FXUS62 KCHS 091415
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1015 AM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGE 1 WAS UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH SEA FOG PLAGUING THE COASTAL WATERS. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK IN THE WAKE
OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
- 3) SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT.
A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH IS KEEPING OUR REGION IN THE
WARM SECTOR, WITH WARM/MOIST CONDITIONS PREVAILING. THOUGH,
THERE IS ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE TO KEEP OUR AREA RAIN-FREE
TODAY. EXPECT MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS SCHEMES SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S, BUT SHOULD
LARGELY PEAK BELOW RECORD TERRITORY DESPITE TEMPERATURES
RUNNING ABOUT 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT ITS INLAND
PROGRESSION WILL BE HAMPERED BY A MODEST WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
STILL, A VERY LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
COASTAL COUNTIES WITH THE BEACHES LIKELY NOT GETTING OUT OF THE
MID-UPPER 60S (ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS SEA FOG). IT WILL CONTINUE
TO BE WARM TONIGHT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S. MORE
STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE ONSET OF SOME WEAK WARM
AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK IN
THE WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD FRONT.
BROAD RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE.
HIGHS IN THE 80S WILL BE COMMON DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH AREAS
ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY STAY CAPPED IN THE UPPER 70S. AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, EXPECT WEDNESDAY TO BE THE
HOTTEST DAY ACROSS OUR ENTIRE AREA, WITH A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS
INTERIOR GEORGIA TAKING A SHOT AT 90 DEGREES. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR LOWS TO REMAIN MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE
LOWER 60S.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS HEADING INTO THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND
SFC COLD FRONT MOVE IN TANDEM OVER THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY
AND PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AN INFLUX OF CAA
WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT MORE NOTABLE IMPACTS
TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOWS FALL INTO THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL HIGHS TO PREVAIL FRIDAY, BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO 80S OVER
THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN
POSSIBLE TUESDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY MORNING
AND AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA.
NONETHELESS, WITH COVERAGE AND OVERALL MOISTURE LACKING, NOT
EXPECTING TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN TO THE FORECAST THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. COVERAGE WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE
MORE WIDESPREAD, WITH POPS CURRENTLY RANGING BETWEEN 60-80%.
WITH THE AID OF SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, SHOULD SEE A DECENT
PUSH OF MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT, THERE SHOULD
ALSO BE JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO FIRE OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH THE TIMING OF FROPA WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. RATHER, THE MORE LIKELY OUTCOME OF THIS FRONT WILL
ENTAIL A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND BREEZY WINDS. WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING BETWEEN 0.25 - 1.0 INCH, SHOULD SEE
OVERALL FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW, THOUGH DRAINAGE ISSUES MAY
STILL EXIST IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
09/12Z TAFS: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A RISK FOR LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL INCREASE AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT, BUT
THE RISK FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LOOK HIGHEST AT KJZI AND
POSSIBLY KCHS. KSAV SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THE RISK FOR SEA FOG WILL PERSIST INTO
TONIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE ON HOW WIDESPREAD ANY
FOG WILL BECOME, WHICH HAS BEEN AN ONGOING ISSUE FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT SOME DEGREE OF EXPANSION TODAY WHICH MAY
YIELD ENOUGH LOW VSBYS TO REQUIRE A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
MORE/THICKER FOG COULD REDEVELOP TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY (10 KT POSSIBLY 10-15 KT) ALONG THE BEACHES
AND CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. EXPECT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND SUSTAINED IN THE 5-10 KT
RANGE AND SEAS 2-4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS ALL OF OUR OCEAN ZONES. THE COLD
FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO
VEER BEHIND IT AND FURTHER INCREASE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR WATERS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 87/1974
KCXM: 84/1974
KSAV: 88/1974
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 90/1974
KCXM: 87/1974
KSAV: 91/1974
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCHS: 66/2022
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
MARCH 12:
KCHS: 62/1985
KCXM: 64/1973
KSAV: 65/1973
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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