667
FXUS62 KCHS 091819
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
219 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL OF THE KEY MESSAGES WERE UPDATED. THE AVIATION SECTION
WAS UPDATED FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-95.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95.
THE SURFACE PATTERN CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR NORTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE FAR OFFSHORE. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS
KEEPING OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR, WITH DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE. MODELS HINT AT A BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT, THEN DISSIPATING BEFORE THEY GET TO OUR FAR
INLAND COUNTIES. BUT THIS WILL JUST ADD ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO
OUR AREA, WITH TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 60S. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS POINT TO SEA FOG
FORMING THIS EVENING, AND THEN SHIFTING INLAND LATER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. LOCATIONS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, AND
EAST OF I-95 ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE IMPACTS FROM THE LOW
STRATUS AND FOG. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING UNSEASONABLY
WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE
80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN SLIGHTLY COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD, WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD HIT 90 DEGREES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINS, ESPECIALLY ON
WEDNESDAY (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. HOWEVER, WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE, SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
IS NOT EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVE EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
MODELS SHOW A LINE/BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON PERIOD. THE CURRENT TIME OF ARRIVAL
FOR THE FRONT PASSAGE (PROGGED FOR THURSDAY EVENING) SHOULD KEEP
INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY REMAINING
BELOW 1000 J/KG. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN THE MIX (60-70 KT), ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT
SLOWS AND DELAYS RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-HALF TO ONE
INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY AS
RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICK, THOUGH MINOR
DRAINAGE ISSUES COULD OCCUR IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE
AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND INTO
THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
18Z TAFS: VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG COULD DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND
THEN MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF THIS
OCCURRING ARE FOR KJZI, FOLLOWED BY KCHS, AND FINALLY KSAV. FOR
THIS REASON, WE INTRODUCED IFR FOR KCHS AND KSAV LATE TONIGHT,
BUT ONLY HINTED AT IT FOR KSAV. ANY LOW STRATUS/FOG THAT
DEVELOPS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE IS TO OUR EAST. THIS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL GENERATE S TO
SSW WINDS 5-10 KT. THIS WIND DIRECTION SHOULD USHER DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY FOR
SEA FOG TO FORM. THE COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE,
BUT THE TENDENCY IS IF/WHEN IT DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD STICK AROUND
UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. AT THE LEAST,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES
WHERE WE ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO REACH 25- 30 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH
OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 9:
KCXM: 65/2022
KSAV: 65/2022
MARCH 10:
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR
SITES DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BRS
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