974
FXUS62 KCHS 092321
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT MON MAR 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY EAST OF
I-95 AND ALONG THE COAST.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 AND ALONG THE COAST.
THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO SIT WITHIN THIS VERY SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN DRIVEN BY SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC. THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE WARM AND RELATIVELY MOIST,
AND THE NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS REMAIN COOL WITH WATER
TEMPERATURES HAVING STEADILY RISEN INTO THE LOW 60S. WE HAVE
ALSO BEEN IN A ROUTINE OF NOCTURNAL FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SOME DEGREE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, THOUGH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS IT WILL REMAIN CLOSELY ALIGNED WITH THE
COOLEST SHELF WATERS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FOG AND LOW
STRATUS WILL DEVELOP IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, BUT LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WILL TAKE ON A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT WHICH WILL
PREVENT MUCH FROM BLEEDING ONSHORE. THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND THE
BEACHES HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING FOG AND STRATUS, MAINLY
CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE OVERALL RISK FOR DENSE FOG SEEMS TO BE
LESS THAN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS AS A RESULT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, ALLOWING
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY REACH THE 80S, WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN SLIGHTLY
COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL STAY MILD, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S.
WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
MIDDLE/UPPER 80S AND LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COULD HIT 90 DEGREES. FORECAST TEMPERATURES COULD APPROACH
RECORD HIGHS AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINS, ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
(SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY AREA.
HOWEVER, WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND RELATIVELY LOW COVERAGE,
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED. NO SEVERE WEATHER
EXPECTED.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVE EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. MODELS SHOW A LINE/BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
PERIOD. THE CURRENT TIME OF ARRIVAL FOR THE FRONT PASSAGE
(PROGGED FOR THURSDAY EVENING) SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT
LIMITED, WITH SBCAPE VALUES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG.
WITH DECENT SHEAR IN THE MIX (60-70 KT), ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE AT THIS TIME. IF THE FRONT SLOWS
AND DELAYS RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-HALF
TO ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED,
ESPECIALLY AS RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICK,
THOUGH MINOR DRAINAGE ISSUES COULD OCCUR IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE 40S
ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES
THEN REBOUND INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD BEGINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS, KJZI, AND
KSAV. OVERALL, THERE IS A MUCH LOWER CHANCE FOR FOG AND STRATUS
IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE, WE HAVE
KEPT THE FORECAST VFR AT KCHS AND KSAV AS BOTH SITES SHOULD BE
INLAND OF THE COAST ENOUGH TO LOWER THE THREAT SUBSTANTIALLY.
KJZI COULD BE A BIT TRICKY WITH ITS CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST. WE STILL ADVERTISE A PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IN A TEMPO
GROUP FROM 09-12Z. ANY FOG AND STRATUS THAT DOES PUSH INLAND
SHOULD LIFT QUICKLY AND THE REST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO BE
VFR. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES OF DIRECT
IMPACTS THIS FAR OUT ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF'S
(PRIMARILY KCHS AND KJZI).
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS MAY OCCUR TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
TONIGHT: A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE TO OUR NORTH WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE IS TO OUR EAST. THIS SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL GENERATE S TO
SSW WINDS 5-10 KT. THIS WIND DIRECTION SHOULD USHER DEEPER
MOISTURE OVER THE COOLER SHELF WATERS, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY FOR
SEA FOG TO FORM. THE COVERAGE AND TIMING REMAINS QUESTIONABLE,
BUT THE TENDENCY IS IF/WHEN IT DEVELOPS, IT SHOULD STICK AROUND
UNTIL JUST AFTER DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. AT THE LEAST,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES
WHERE WE ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO REACH 25- 30 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH
OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
BSH
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page