483
FXUS62 KCHS 100515
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A RISK OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SEA
FOG POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS
MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A RISK OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY WITH SEA FOG ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
THIS MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
A LARGE BANK OF SEA FOG OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WILL
BUFFET THE BARRIER ISLANDS AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. THE FOG MAY MEANDER INTO THE UPPER PARTS OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THIS CAN LIKELY BE HANDLED WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED IMPACTED
AREA, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN CASE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY
IS NEEDED. THE FOG MAY EXPAND SOUTHWEST TO OFF THE COLLETON AND
BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTS WITH TIME.
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE REGION
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
REGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITES SHOW A DECAYING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM (MCS) MOVING THROUGH WESTERN/CENTRAL GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS COMPLEX WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST WHILE GRADUALLY
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE LOCAL AREA. SOME DEGREE OF
MEASURABLE RAINFALL COULD MAKE INTO PARTS OF THE LOWCOUNTRY AND
FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ARE BEING HIGHLIGHTED TO REFLECT THIS
POSSIBILITY. IN ADDITION TO SOME LIGHT RAIN A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER COULD OCCUR. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH
OF I-16 AND ESPECIALLY FROM COLLETON-BEAUFORT COUNTIES NORTH
WHERE GUIDANCE PLACES THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850 HPA THEAT-E
VALUES LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. POPS 20-30% WERE
HIGHLIGHTED ALONG WITH A CONTINUED MENTION OF TSTMS. THE RISK
FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION AND THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION,
PARTICULARLY IN THE WAKE OF THE INLAND MOVING RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION.
THE TREND OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. HIGH
TODAY ARE POISED TO REACH INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV LOOK SAFE. A
WELL-DEFINED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRANSLATE
INLAND AS THE MID- LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THIS WILL KEEP
BEACH LOCATIONS QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. TYPICAL FOR LATE WINTER,
THERE WILL BE VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WITHIN ~5 MILES OF THE
COAST. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD
BE CHALLENGED FOR KCHS, KCXM AND KSAV.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW AREAS
ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA TAKING A SHOT AT 90 DEGREES, WHICH COULD
PUT A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY (MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW). SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, ALSO HAVE THOSE ALONG THE
COAST STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LOWS TO
REMAIN MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVE EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. MODELS SHOW A LINE/BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
PERIOD. THE CURRENT TIME OF FROPA (PROGGED FOR THURSDAY
EVENING) SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH SBCAPE
VALUES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG. NONETHELESS, WITH
DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE (60-70 KT), CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALTERNATIVELY, IF THE FRONT SLOWS
AND DELAYS RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IN THE COMING DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
AS RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICK, THOUGH
MINOR DRAINAGE ISSUES COULD OCCUR IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP NOTICEABLY IN THE WAKE
OF FROPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAA SURGES ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND
INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
10/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KSAV: VFR SHOULD PREVAIL FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV FOR MUCH
OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. LOW STRATUS/SEA FOG FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
MAY APPROACH KCHS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT MOST SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF THE TERMINAL. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT
KCHS JUST ABOUT ANY TIME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN A
PARTICULAR TEMPORAL WINDOW OR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO
JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
KJZI: SATELLITE SHOWS AN AREA OF LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLE SEA
FOG LURKING NEAR THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT IFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND INTO THE TERMINAL SOON, BUT THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THE SEA FOG/STRATUS WILL REMAIN JUST EAST OF THE
TERMINAL. OPTED FOR TEMPO IFR CONDITIONS BELOW ALTERNATE
MINIMUMS 09-12Z FOR NOW, BUT AMENDMENTS WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE
NEEDED AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR SHOULD RETURN BY 14Z
AND PERSIST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL JUST ABOUT ANY TIME
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR TEMPORAL
WINDOW OR DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-WEEK. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS.
SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DENSE SEA FOG AND/OR STRATUS
JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST. THE FOG LOOKS PRETTY THICK
BASED ON WEBCAMS AT FOLLY BEACH, SO A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN POSTED UNTIL 9 AM FOR THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH
NEARSHORE LEG. OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT, BUT
MAY BE CLOSER TO 10-15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALONG
THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ITSELF. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR SEA FOG FORMATION. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. AT THE LEAST,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES
WHERE WE ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO REACH 25- 30 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH
OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350.
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