241
FXUS62 KCHS 100952
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
552 AM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE MCS HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER
NORTHERN ZONES THROUGH DAYBREAK. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCT
WERE ISSUED TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) THERE IS A RISK OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH SEA
FOG POSSIBLE ALONG PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS
MORNING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
- 2) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 3) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THERE IS A RISK OR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY WITH THE REGION
LOCATED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANKS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE.
A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP A RISK FOR ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS GOING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. THE
BEST CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF I-16 AND
ESPECIALLY FROM COLLETON-BEAUFORT COUNTIES NORTH WHERE GUIDANCE
PLACES THE AXIS OF HIGHEST 850 HPA THEAT-E VALUES LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. POPS 20-30% WERE HIGHLIGHTED ALONG
WITH A CONTINUED MENTION OF TSTMS. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS
WILL QUICKLY END THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF INSOLATION AND
THE ONSET OF BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZATION, PARTICULARLY IN THE
WAKE OF THE INLAND MOVING RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
THE TREND OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUES. HIGH
TODAY ARE POISED TO REACH INTO THE MID-UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
COAST. THE RECORD HIGHS AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV LOOK SAFE. A
WELL-DEFINED RESULTANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND TRANSLATE
INLAND AS THE MID- LATE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THIS WILL KEEP
BEACH LOCATIONS QUITE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED TO
TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. TYPICAL FOR LATE WINTER,
THERE WILL BE VERY TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WITHIN ~5 MILES OF THE
COAST. WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD
BE CHALLENGED FOR KCHS, KCXM AND KSAV.
KEY MESSAGE 2: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDS TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
RESULTING IN YET ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
CURRENTLY HAVE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH A FEW AREAS
ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA TAKING A SHOT AT 90 DEGREES, WHICH COULD
PUT A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY (MORE ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW). SIMILAR TO TUESDAY, ALSO HAVE THOSE ALONG THE
COAST STAYING IN THE UPPER 70S. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR LOWS TO
REMAIN MILD, AS TEMPERATURES ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 3: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVE EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE
ATLANTIC. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH
UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT. MODELS SHOW A LINE/BROKEN LINE OF
CONVECTION PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA IN THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON
PERIOD. THE CURRENT TIME OF FROPA (PROGGED FOR THURSDAY
EVENING) SHOULD KEEP INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH SBCAPE
VALUES LIKELY REMAINING BELOW 1000 J/KG. NONETHELESS, WITH
DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE (60-70 KT), CAN'T RULE OUT SEEING A FEW
ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. ALTERNATIVELY, IF THE FRONT SLOWS
AND DELAYS RAINFALL INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SLIGHTLY GREATER
INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE
ON IN THE COMING DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-HALF TO
ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY
AS RAINFALL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH RELATIVELY QUICK, THOUGH
MINOR DRAINAGE ISSUES COULD OCCUR IN URBAN OR LOW-LYING AREAS.
OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP NOTICEABLY IN THE WAKE
OF FROPA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS CAA SURGES ACROSS THE REGION,
THOUGH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT COOLING LOOKS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
NIGHT. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND INTO THE 40S ELSEWHERE AWAY FROM
THE BEACHES. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY, WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND
INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
10/12Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL JUST ABOUT ANY TIME
THROUGH THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN A PARTICULAR TEMPORAL WINDOW OR
DIRECT IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS OR
TSTMS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOW
STRATUS/FOG REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID- WEEK. OTHERWISE, LOOK
FOR A COLD FRONT TO BRING ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND
BREEZY WINDS ON THURSDAY.
MARINE
THE EARLY EXTENSIVE SEA FOG BANK HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
WEBCAMS AT FOLLY AND ISLE OF PALMS SHOW NO MORE ISSUES. THE
MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THROUGH TONIGHT: THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION. SPEEDS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT, BUT
MAY BE CLOSER TO 10-15 KT IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND ALONG
THE LAND-SEA INTERFACE WITHIN THE CIRCULATION ITSELF. WINDS WILL
VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT. LOOKS
LIKE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR SEA FOG FORMATION. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-2 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THIS WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN S/SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KT AND SEAS 2
TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE
WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE. AT THE LEAST,
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE LIKELY FOR MOST MARINE ZONES
WHERE WE ANTICIPATE GUSTS TO REACH 25- 30 KT AND SEAS 4-7 FT AS
EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THROUGH
OUR WATERS THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST
IN ITS WAKE. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OUR WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF GALE WATCH/WARNING COULD
BE NEEDED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO
IMPROVING CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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