975
FXUS62 KCHS 110041
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
841 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE AVIATION SECTION TO REFLECT THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT WILL SHIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING HEIGHTS TO RISE AND TEMPERATURES TO WARM
FURTHER. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 60S. WEDNESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COULD TAP INTO THE LOWER
90S. MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AFTERNOON HIGHS AROUND 15-20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID-MARCH. RECORD HIGHS AND/OR RECORD HIGH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD BE EXCEEDED AT KCHS, KSAV, AND KCXM (SEE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW).
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL SHIFT ON THURSDAY AS A TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD
FRONT MOVE EAST FROM THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY TOWARD THE ATLANTIC.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. COMBINED WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES, THIS SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT.
MODELS INDICATE A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH FROPA CURRENTLY
EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT
LIMITED WITH SBCAPE VALUES PEAKING BELOW 900 J/KG. HOWEVER, STRONG
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR (6070 KT) WILL BE PRESENT, SO AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IF THE FRONT SLOWS AND DELAYS
STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS, SLIGHTLY GREATER INSTABILITY COULD
DEVELOP, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH
ARE EXPECTED. FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, THURSDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH GUSTS AROUND 20-25 MPH OVER LAND. GUSTS OVER LAKE
MOULTRIE COULD OCCASIONALLY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS, THOUGH
PROBABILITIES FOR 25 KT GUSTS REMAIN TOO LOW FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NOTICEABLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION DEVELOPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
COOLING OCCURRING THURSDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL ROUGHLY
20 DEGREES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS NIGHTS, DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO MID
40S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. A MUCH COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES THEN REBOUND
INTO THE 70S AND 80S OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
00Z TAFS: VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK AS THEY SLOWLY TURN BACK TO BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AN AFTERNOON SEA- BREEZE
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO BECOME MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTH IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE ALSO ALSO BRINGING
SEMI-BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH IT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT COULD
RESULT IN SHORT-LIVED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
MARINE
TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL YIELD S TO
SSW WINDS AROUND 10 KT THIS EVENING, BECOMING SW 10-15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT FOR
THE GA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE BEFORE A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATE WEDNESDAY, CAUSING WINDS AND
SEAS TO INCREASE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR
MOST MARINE ZONES WHERE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REACH 25-30 KT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BUILDING SEAS WILL FOLLOW, PEAKING AROUND 5-8 FT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON, CAUSING WINDS TO VEER OUT OF THE NORTHEAST IN ITS WAKE.
GUSTS TO GALE FORCE FOR A FEW HOURS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY NEARSHORE WATERS (0-20 NM) AND THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE WATERS FROM 20-60 NM THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BRIEF GALE
WATCH/WARNING COULD BE NEEDED. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 10:
KCHS: 64/1974
KCXM: 65/1974
KSAV: 63/1909
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
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