034
FXUS62 KCHS 110536
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS WERE UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH.
- 3) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
WELL OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. WARM, DEEP-LAYERED SOUTHERLY BREEZES BETWEEN THE HIGH
AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL KEEP THE MOIST AND VERY WARM
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON ARE
POISED TO WARM IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND IT IS VERY
POSSIBLE THE RECORDS AT BOTH KCHS, KSAV AND MAYBE EVEN KCXM
COULD FALL, ESPECIALLY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER-PERFORMING A
BIT OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS FROM POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTIONS FROM THE
VERY DRY SOIL/DROUGHT CONDITIONS THAT ARE IN PLACE. ANOTHER
ROBUST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TREK INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WILL KEEP A TIGHT THERMAL
GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WITH AS MUCH AS A 10-15
DEGREE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BEACHES/BARRIER ISLAND AND ~5
MILES INLAND.
WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY WELL MIXED FROM STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JETTING THAT WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
THIS WILL HELP KEEP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES UP A BIT WHICH THE
11/01Z NBM IS LIKELY NOT PICKING UP ON. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE
ADJUSTED BASED ON A BLEND OF HOURLY TEMPERATURES FROM BOTH THE
RAP AND H3R. THIS YIELDS LOWS IN THE MID 60S WITH LOWER 60 AT
THE BEACHES. THE RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS COULD BE CHALLENGED AT ALL
THREE CLIMATE SITES. SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILED RECORD INFORMATION.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT A FEW OF THE CAMS DO
SPIT OUT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE LOWCOUNTRY
AND THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WHERE
SOME SLIGHTLY 850 HPA POOLING OCCURS. CONFIDENCE FOR ANYTHING
MEASURABLE IS TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY A MENTION AT THIS POINT, BUT IS
SOMETHING TO WATCH LATER TODAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
A MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE WITH PWATS PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 1.25 INCHES, WHICH IS NEAR
OR ABOVE 90TH PERCENTILE OF CLIMO FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN INDICATING A BAND OF SHOWERS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WITH CURRENT
TIMING LOOKING TO BE THURSDAY MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.
PERUSING SEVERE PARAMETERS WOULD INDICATE AMPLE SHEAR FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION ON THE ORDER 50-60 KNOTS, HOWEVER INSTABILITY AND
LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER POOR. PERHAPS IF THE BAND ENDS UP BEING
SLOWER, THERE COULD BE A BIT MORE DESTABILIZATION, BUT AT THIS
POINT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. STILL, COULD NOT
RULE OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE AND GIVEN WIDESPREAD SEVERE (D2) AND EXTREME (D3)
DROUGHT, FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED TO FALL IN THE 0.25-0.75" RANGE, WITH NBM
PROBABILITY OF 12 HR PRECIP > 1" OF ONLY 20-40%.
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS COULD BECOME GUSTY,
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH. CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY SHY OF LAKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING LOWS WILL
LARGELY FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S, WHICH IS A GOOD 20+
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS.
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL COME SUNDAY WITH A WARM FRONT, AND
THEN MONDAY WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT. PERHAPS OF BIGGER NOTE
IS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE
TIME PERIOD OF MOST CONCERN IS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WHEN LOWS COULD DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR FROST/FREEZE ISSUES AS THE GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. NBM
CURRENTLY HAS A 30% CHANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES LESS THAN
32F, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
11/06Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 12/06Z. GUSTS COULD APPROACH 20 KT AT
KCHS AND KJZI THIS AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TIGHTENS. A SEA BREEZE
SURGE WILL ENHANCE WINDS ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE AND
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. OTHERWISE, WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KT TODAY AND 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE AND
GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD 3-4 FT, EXCEPT
4-6 FT LATE IN THE SOUTH SANTEE-EDISTO BEACH AND GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEGS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PUSH OFFSHORE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR
ALL COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS
SHOULD PEAK THURSDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS
A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE FORCE DURING THIS TIME,
MAINLY OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OUTER GEORGIA WATERS,
WHERE NBM INDICATES AROUND A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 34
KNOTS. SPATIAL EXTENT AND DURATION SEEMS PRETTY LIMITED, SO
HOLDING OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES AT THIS TIME. WINDS AND SEAS
SHOULD VASTLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD LINGER
INTO FRIDAY EVENING DUE TO 6 FT SEAS. NEXT TIME PERIOD OF
CONCERN IS MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL
ADVISORIES COULD BE POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ374.
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