665
FXUS62 KCHS 111740
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
A LAKE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE, VALID
FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM THURSDAY. THE AVIATION SECTION WAS UPDATED
FOR THE 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
- 2) AS A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION, EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
- 3) CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK,
FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO
MIDWEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RECORD TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH THROUGH TONIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL DOMINATE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, BOTH ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE. OFF TO THE WEST A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES, PROGGED TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW.
PINCHED BETWEEN THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL APPROACH GUSTS OF 15 TO EVEN 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF NOON TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED INTO THE LOW TO
MID 80S, WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 THIS AFTERNOON. THESE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CHALLENGE THE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AT ALL THREE OF THE LOCAL CLIMATE SITES
(KCHS, KSAV, KCXM). SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A
ROBUST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AS OF NOON AND WILL WORK ITS WAY
INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS WILL YIELD A TIGHT
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES, WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS AT AREA BEACHES.
TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION, AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINING MIXED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER 60S, CHALLENGING THE
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES AT OUR LOCAL CLIMATE SITES
(ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION).
KEY MESSAGE 2: SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
AS AN UPPER-LVL TROUGH TRAVERSES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD, AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW. EXPECT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO BE
AVAILABLE WITH PWATS PEAKING FROM 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE
ONGOING AHEAD OF THE FRONT TOMORROW MORNING AND EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AN AMPLE AMOUNT OF SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT ON THE
ORDER OF 50-60 KTS AS THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS THROUGH
THE REGION, INDICATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE
(MAINLY BECAUSE OF WIND GUSTS). HOWEVER, WITH THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY AND POOR LAPSE RATES, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS RATHER
LOW TOMORROW. CONSISTENT WITH THE OTHER GUIDANCE, RECENT MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION RATHER
QUICKLY AND FORECASTED TO BE OFFSHORE BY THE EVENING. THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD BE PROGRESSIVE GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD SEVERE (D2) AND EXTREME
(D3) DROUGHT AND FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS EVENT.
AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.25-0.75 INCHES, WITH NBM PROBS
OF 12 HR PRECIP. > 1 INCH OF ONLY 20-30%.
OTHER THAN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WINDS COULD BE RATHER BREEZY
TOMORROW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-30 MPH POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE MOULTRIE TOMORROW FROM 10AM TO 8PM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTIER WINDS PRESENT. EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH WITH THURS. NIGHT/FRI.
MORN. LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S (A GOOD 20+ DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS).
KEY MESSAGE 3: CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURN LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, FOLLOWED BY NOTABLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
INTO MIDWEEK.
THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN ARRIVES SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES ON MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT. OF GREATER SIGNIFICANCE MAY BE COOLER TEMPS. ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WHEN LOWS
COULD FALL INTO THE 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA.
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL FROST/FREEZE IMPACTS AS
GROWING SEASON HAS BEGUN. NBM CURRENTLY HAS A 30-40% CHANCE FOR
MINIMUM TEMPS. LESS THAN 32F, MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR WILL DOMINATE AT KCHS/KJZI/KSAV THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FEATURE GUSTY SW WINDS, GENERALLY AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT ALL TERMINALS. TONIGHT A LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION, WITH WIND SHEAR NOW FEATURED AT KCHS AND
KJZI FROM 03 TO 08Z TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
REGION TOMORROW MORNING GUSTY SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP AT ALL
TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, A LINE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE TERMINALS TOMORROW MORNING. WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVING SO LATE IN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD THE TAFS
CURRENTLY ONLY MENTION SHRA BEGINNING AT 15Z AT EACH TAF SITE. THIS
TIMING WILL NEED TO BE FINE TUNED WITH FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES. THUNDER
HAS NOT BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER THAT COULD CHANGE AS
WELL WITH FUTURE UPDATES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: RESTRICTIVE CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST INTO TOMORROW EVENING.
MARINE
THROUGH TONIGHT: HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MARINE WATERS. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST WILL YIELD A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT, WITH SOUTHERLY
GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS. A SEA BREEZE SURGE WILL ENHANCE THE WINDS
ALONG THE COASTLINE AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON.
GUSTS ALONG THE COASTLINE AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR COULD
APPROACH 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER CONDITIONS APPEAR TO STAY
JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE HARBOR. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES BEGINNING TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY: EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, AND THEN CONTINUE TO INCREASE BEHIND THE
FRONT AS IT PUSHES OFFSHORE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS OUTSIDE OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CONDITIONS WILL PEAK THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A LOW-END POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE (MAINLY ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS). 13Z NBM CONTINUES TO
HIGHLIGHT A 30% CHANCE OF GUSTS EXCEEDING 34 KTS THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER THIS DURATION SEEMS FAIRLY SHORT (LESS THAN 3 HOURS).
THEREFORE, HOLDING OFF ON A GALE WARNING AT THIS TIME. AFTERWARDS,
MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD VASTLY IMPROVE ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS COULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY
AFTERNOON IF ELEVATED SEAS PERSIST. THE NEXT PERIOD OF CONCERN WILL
BE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
COULD BE POSSIBLE.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 85/2015
KCXM: 82/1997
KSAV: 87/2015
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 11:
KCHS: 63/2015
KCXM: 64/2016
KSAV: 64/1974
EQUIPMENT
THE KCLX RADAR IS SCHEDULED FOR RADOME PANEL REPLACEMENT MARCH
14-16, 2026. THE RADAR WILL BE DOWN DURING THIS TIME. USERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO USE DATA FROM THE FOLLOWING NEARBY RADAR SITES
DURING THE MAINTENANCE OUTAGE:
KCAE - COLUMBIA, SC
KLTX - WILMINGTON, NC
KJAX - JACKSONVILLE, FL
KVAX - MOODY AFB, GA
KJGX - ROBBINS AFB, GA
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THURSDAY TO 11 AM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ350.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
AMZ352-354.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
FOR AMZ374.
CPM/DENNIS
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