904
FXUS62 KCHS 271729
AFDCHS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
...DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY SATURDAY--RED FLAG
WARNINGS ISSUED...
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALL KEY MESSAGES AND SECTIONS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
- 2) HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE LATE TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
- 3) DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH WINDY
CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT WITH
WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
- 4) DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURE HAVE RISEN INTO THE LOWER-MID 80S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND ARE ON TAP TO PEAK IN THE UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BEACHES
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND BEGIN ITS TYPICAL INLAND TREK
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE RECORD HIGHS AT
ALL THREE CLIMATE SITES WILL BE CHALLENGED. SEE THE CLIMATE
SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ON LAKE MOULTRIE
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE QUICKLY ON LAKE MOULTRIE TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH THE LAKE
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH WINDS QUICKLY INCREASING WITH ITS
PASSAGE. NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30 KT WITH WAVES BUILDING 2-3 FT. THE HIGHEST
WINDS AND MOST SIGNIFICANT WAVE ACTION SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LAKE. THERE MAY EVEN BE
SOME MINOR LAKESHORE EROSION AND OVER SPLASH ALONG THE LAKE'S
SOUTH SIDE, INCLUDING AROUND PINOPOLIS, LIONS BEACH AND SHORT
STAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING THEN DROP
BELOW LAKE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (SUSTAINED 20 KT OR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT) BY EARLY AFTERNOON. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LAKE MOULTRIE FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH 2 PM SATURDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 3: DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY FOR
MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE COAST. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
WITH WIND ADVISORIES ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER: A DANGEROUS AND POTENTIALLY HIGH-IMPACT FIRE EVENT
IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
LOWCOUNTRY AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LOCATED
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK. MUCH DRIER/COOLER AIR
WILL ADVECT IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD MIX OUT IN
THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S INLAND WITH MID-UPPER 30S ALONG PARTS
OF THE GEORGIA COAST WHERE A BIT MORE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW THERE
DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE. AS TEMPERATURES MAX
OUT IN THE 60S (POSSIBLY AROUND 70 IN SPOTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA), RH WILL REACH CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY LATE MORNING AND
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 15-25% RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, A TAD
HIGHER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GEORGIA COAST. NORTH WINDS 15-25 MPH
INLAND/20-30 MPH COAST WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH INLAND/30-40 MPH
COAST WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING HOURS THEN DIMINISH DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WANES AND THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEGINS TO RELAX SOME. ALTHOUGH THE HIGHEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RH WILL NOT BE PERFECTLY ALIGNED THERE WILL BE ABOUT A
4-6 HOUR PERIOD WHERE THE FIRE DANGER WILL BE ESPECIALLY HIGH
FOR THE REGION WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE FOR THE RAPID SPREAD
OF WILDFIRES.
STATE, FEDERAL AND MILITARY LAND MANAGERS CONTINUE TO REPORT
EXTREMELY DRY FUELS OWING TO SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. ERRATIC AND VOLATILE FIRE BEHAVIOR HAS BEEN OBSERVED
WITH CONTROLLED BURNS AND WILDFIRES OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED RH, WINDS
AND THE ONGOING FUELS/FIRE BEHAVIOR SITUATION, A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL BUT COASTAL PORTIONS OF LIBERTY
AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM UNTIL 8 PM SATURDAY.
COASTAL WINDS: COASTAL WINDS WILL BE HEAVILY INFLUENCED BY THE
DEVELOPING GALES ACROSS THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INDUCED BY A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE
WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WINDS OF
20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS 35-40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME AREAS
ALONG THE BEACHES POSSIBLY GUSTING 40-45 MPH AT TIMES. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL COASTAL ZONES FROM 8 AM UNTIL 2
PM SATURDAY. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE CAN DOWN TREES AND LARGE
BRANCHES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES COULD OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 4: DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MOST OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO
OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY, THEN RISE ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY. THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
27/18Z TAF DISCUSSION:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR THROUGH 28/18Z. GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON, POSSIBLY NEARING 20 KT AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AT KCHS
AND KJZI. WINDS WILL SETTLE DOWN A BIT THIS EVENING, THEN RAMP
UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS.
VERY GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY AFTER DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS NEARING 30
KT AT TIMES ALL TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK: VFR. THERE WILL BE GUSTY WINDS BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY.
MARINE
THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO CENTER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR GALES OVER THE ALL WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING A STRONG COLD FRONT
WORKING SOUTH ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT, LIKELY
PUSHING INTO NORTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY.
BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE OWING TO A
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING IN FROM THE NORTH AND SOME POST FRONTAL COLD
AIR ADVECTION. FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE SHOULD DEVELOP OVER
THE WATERS A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH SUSTAINED GALES
POSSIBLE OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. THE FORECAST WILL
SHOW 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35-40 KT NEARSHORE WATERS WITH 30-35
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40-45 KT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.
EVEN IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR, GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES LOOK
LIKELY, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE HARBOR ENTRANCE. THE GALE WATCH HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING TO REFLECT THESE CONDITIONS. THE
RISK FOR GALES SHOULD END ACROSS THE HARBOR AND NEARSHORE
WATERS BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE
WATERS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL PEAK 6-9 FT NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 9-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REPLACE
THE GALE WARNINGS ONCE THEY EXPIRE.
HIGH SURF: BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD REACH 5-6 FT ALONG PARTS OF
THE GEORGIA COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.
CLIMATE
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES:
MARCH 27:
KCHS: 87/2021
KCXM: 81/2021
KSAV: 89/2021
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
099>101-114>119-137-138-140.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GAZ117-119-
139-141.
SC...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ040-
042>045-047>052.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY
FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
GALE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.
ST
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